Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in Washington, D.C., on July 23, 2025.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty ImagesNvidia’s earnings aren’t just about Nvidia anymore.
Constituting 8% of the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 index and with an unrivaled grip on the chips that power generative AI, Nvidia sees its results treated more like a macroeconomic indicator by Wall Street than as a report card on a single company.
Investors
are bracing for the company’s latest quarterly results due after today’s market close, with trading in Nvidia options implying expectations that the stock will move 6%, up or down—equal to a $260 billion change in Nvidia’s market value.
In the three months since the company last gave investors a quarterly update, Nvidia’s stock has surged 35%.
But the tension surrounding what is already the most closely watched earnings event of the season has been ratcheted up by recent jitters over what some worry is a dangerous financial bubble in AI-related stocks.
Uncertainty about Nvidia’s China business also looms large.
Wall Street analysts are looking for Nvidia’s Q2 revenue to surge 53% year over year to $46 billion, at the high end of Nvidia’s guidance, with earnings per share of $1.01. Data center sales, the crux of Nvidia’s business, are expected to come in close to $40 billion.
But with Nvidia’s shares having gained so much in recent months, a miss on Wednesday, or cautious guidance tied to China restrictions, could send the stock plummeting.
Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, told
Fortune that Nvidia now has two primary groups to please: stockholders and the Trump administration.
“They’re caught,” he says, “between a rock and a hard place.”
—Sharon Goldman