Plus: Here’s Why Old Homes Suddenly Cost More Than New Ones |
Good morning,
Wall Street is bullish on the giant of coconut water, even in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.Vita Coco is one of the hottest small cap companies, but its biggest source of coconuts in the U.S. up until now has been Brazil, which is now saddled with a 50% tariff. Cofounder and executive chairman Mike Kirban insists it’s a “nonissue,” and says the firm will instead source its U.S. supply from countries like the Philippines and Malaysia, though both still face levies of 19% and 25%, respectively. Still, a majority of Wall Street analysts seem to agree, with six of 10 who cover the company rating it a “buy.”
Let’s get into the headlines, |
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| As the U.S. plans to take a 10% stake in Intel, Forbes has learned that the tech company has little-known partnerships with multiple Chinese surveillance firms that have faced sanctions. The U.S. government has accused two of the companies, surveillance camera manufacturer Hikvision and facial recognition firm Cloudwalk, of allegedly enabling human rights abuses through the surveillance of Uyghurs. A top Social Security Administration official alleges DOGE uploaded a copy of all federal Social Security numbers, full names, addresses and birth dates to a high-risk server in June, creating “enormous vulnerabilities.” The SSA’s chief data officer Charles Borges said the server did not have the type of “independent security monitoring” typically required, adding to the controversy around DOGE’s access to Social Security data. |
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 | | Illustration by Samantha Lee for Forbes; Photo by Feverpitched/Getty Images |
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| In a bizarre trend for the U.S. housing market, new homes are selling for less than existing ones. In June, the median existing home sold for $441,500, while the median new home went for $401,800. Since 1968, 690 months in total, new homes have only undercut existing ones 22 times. From June 1982 to May 2024, it happened just twice, and the 1990s never saw the inversion happen at all. But since May 2024, this flipped market has popped up seven times, happening every month from April through June of this year, the latest data we’ve got. June’s gap was a record-breaker: New homes sold for 9% less than existing ones, smashing the previous record 3% discount. “Builders overbuilt during the pandemic,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. Builders don’t have the luxury of sitting on 4% mortgages like those who bought homes from 2011 through 2022 do. They need to move inventory, so they cut prices and offer deals to get homes off their books and into the hands of people willing to pay today’s 6%+ mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says that since June 2024, 60% of homebuilders were using sales incentives, and 30% lowered their prices. Incentives can mean interest rate buy-downs, help with closing costs, or free upgrades that lower the effective price without changing the sticker. Still, it hasn’t hurt their performance: The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, which tracks companies like Lennar and NVR, is up 12% this year, beating the S&P 500’s 10% gain. |
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| “Nationwide, median home prices are doing something odd,” says Forbes senior reporter Brandon Kochkodin. “We’ve got to dig down to see what’s going on: Builders cut prices and offer incentives to move excess inventory, they build smaller homes for affordability, existing owners cling to low mortgages and limit supply. This shows where supply comes from and how builders shift the market. We can pin down why this housing market weirdness is happening, but don’t just shrug it off. Keep watching the numbers to figure out what’s coming next.” |
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| In the wake of the Intel deal, the U.S. is having conversations about taking stakes in defense companies like Lockheed Martin, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview. Around 73% of Lockheed’s net sales in 2024 came from the federal government, according to company filings, and Lutnick said the firm is “basically an arm of the U.S. government.” |
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| WEALTH + ENTREPRENEURSHIP |
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| It’s a love story for Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis Kelce, as the celebrity couple announced their engagement on social media Tuesday. Together, the pair have a combined net worth of $1.67 billion—largely due to Swift’s estimated fortune of $1.6 billion—which puts them in rather elite company among celebrity power couples. |
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| Russia will now require all phones and tablets sold within its borders to have a messaging app called Max pre-installed, and security experts told Forbes that the app monitors user activity with “excessive tracking,” confirming fears about government surveillance. The announcement comes as Russia seeks a stronger grip on its domestic internet and control of the narrative over its war in Ukraine. |
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| FEMA placed more than a dozen staffers on leave Tuesday after they signed an open letter to Congress slamming the Trump Administration’s budget cuts for the agency and warned that the move could cause another Hurricane Katrina-like disaster management failure. Since taking office, President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the agency, and the letter criticized the Trump Administration for failing to appoint a full-time FEMA chief. |
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| It’s unclear whether President Donald Trump had the legal authority to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, and Cook said she intends to sue over the decision. The Federal Reserve Act gives presidents limited authority to fire board members for “just cause,” but experts question whether Trump’s allegations of mortgage fraud amount to that. |
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| In the social media post announcing the engagement, Taylor Swift sported a ring that experts say is likely worth over a half million dollars. Swift and Travis Kelce have dominated headlines, and even boosted NFL ratings, since they started dating two years ago: |
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10 to 15 | The number of carats on Swift’s engagement ring, according to an estimate from one gemologist appraiser | |
| $650,000 | The estimated value of the ring | |
| October 3 | The release date for Swift’s upcoming album, The Life of a Showgirl |
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| A traditional 401(k) and a Roth 401(k) are both powerful tools for saving for retirement, and it’s important to consider which is better for you. If you’re in a higher tax bracket now than you expect to be once you’re no longer working, then it makes sense to focus on contributing to a traditional 401(k), which uses pre-tax income. And be sure to factor in where you want to retire—some states have lower or no income taxes. |
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| GAMES | | QUIZ | | A smash hit on Netflix has become the streamer’s most-watched film ever. What movie is it? | | A. | “Red Notice” | | B. | “Happy Gilmore 2” | | C. | “KPop Demon Hunters” | | D. | “My Oxford Year” |
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