Price outlook

Our analysis for the remainder of 2025 forecasts bitcoin reaching a target of $150,000 to $160,000 driven by a Fed policy pivot and rate drop expectations in the United States, beneficial liquidity conditions and the increasingly positive crypto regulatory environment. 

The latest announcement from the Trump administration allowing cryptos into 401(k)s adds an extra layer to the crypto adoption narrative, and a clear pathway to expanding the existing crypto market cap via the estimated 9 trillion USD retirement market in the United States.

Ongoing crypto catalysts

Quantitative models and risks

Our quantitative models remain positive and show significant scope for further upside in bitcoin and the broader market:

Source: Biyond.co, August 2025

Risks

Insights from Demark indicator

Demark TD sequential monthly chart is pointing to a possible top at the end of the year with the index moving towards setup 9 and countdown 13. When the Demark indicator has approached 9 or 13 previously, it has signalled strong overbought exhaustion.

Source: Symbolik Demark TD Sequential

Crypto total market cap

The potential breakout of the crypto total market capitalization chart presents another dynamic to the ongoing and previously mentioned bullish catalyst for the crypto market. Namely:

Conclusion

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are well-placed to explode to new trading highs, with projections expected to reach between $150,000-160,000, and a five trillion USD market capitalization.

Key upcoming risk events include higher CPI readings in the coming months and a halt in trade negotiations between the United States and China, although we feel it is far more likely a “kicking of the can” down the road and an extension of ongoing trade talks to appease markets.

Based on all the positive developments surrounding bitcoin and technical indicators, a strong case can be made for further strong price appreciation running into year-end.

- Nathan Batchelor, managing partner, Biyond

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In our previous research report titled Bitcoin’s Liquidity Trifecta: Unpacking Liquidity Across On-Chain Data, Market Microstructure and Macro Drivers, we explored how various liquidity indicators could reveal underlying capital flows and liquidity conditions for bitcoin. Applying that same framework to ether (ETH) gives us valuable insight into its current liquidity profile — both on-chain and in the broader market. In this update, we also highlight the growing role of digital asset treasuries (DATs) which have emerged as a key driver behind ETH’s recent rally.

1. Realized cap: measuring new capital inflows

Realized cap tracks the net USD-denominated capital invested in a token, reflecting the cumulative cost basis of all holders. Since the cycle low in November 2022, ETH has absorbed over $81 billion in fresh capital inflows, pushing its realized cap to a new all-time high of $266 billion as of August 8th, 2025.

For context, this represents a 43% increase for ETH over the period — substantial, but still well below bitcoin’s 136% rise in realized cap. The slower growth rate suggests that while ETH has been attracting meaningful new investment, there may still be ample room for expansion as institutional interest accelerates.

2. Unhedged spot ETH ETF demand: tracking institutional allocation

In our bitcoin study, we developed a method to estimate genuine institutional demand by isolating ETF inflows not tied to hedged arbitrage trades. Applying this framework to ETH shows that 80–90% of spot ETH ETF inflows are likely genuine institutional allocations, with the remainder driven by arbitrage strategies — long spot positions hedged via CME futures to capture price differentials.

Interestingly, the proportion of arbitrage-related flows is much higher for ETH than bitcoin, where only around 3% of spot ether ETF inflows are estimated to be arbitrage-based. This highlights that institutional allocation to ETH still lags behind BTC, though we expect this gap to close gradually with the recent influx of institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.

Data source: Avenir, CFTC, Glassnode

3. Futures and options open interest: gauging derivatives growth

As of July 21st, combined open interest (OI) in ETH futures and options stood at $71 billion. However, unlike bitcoin — where OI in perpetual futures and options is nearly balanced — ETH options OI remains less than half of perpetual futures OI.

Given that options are more often used by professional traders and institutions, this imbalance indicates that institutional derivatives participation in ETH still has significant room to grow.

4. Limit order book imbalance: reading market sentiment

Order book analysis reveals notable sentiment shifts. When ETH regained $3,800 in July after 7 months, a strong sell-side skew emerged on the limit order books (LOB), suggesting intense, long-awaited profit-taking. But as the price retraced toward $3,300, buy-side depth increased significantly, signaling “buy-the-dip” behavior at that level. Since then, the order book has shown a more balanced supply-demand profile, suggesting no extreme positioning from the market at present.

Data source: Avenir, Binance

5. Digital asset treasuries (DATs): growing structural buyers of ETH

A new and increasingly important source of demand for ETH comes from DATs — corporations that diversify into ETH by holding it on their balance sheets. For example, Bitmine and Sharplink are two of the most notable representatives of this trend.

Since April, DATs have accumulated roughly 4.1 million ETH ($17.6 billion), representing about 3.4% of the circulating supply; Bitmine alone accounts for 1.3%. For context, U.S. spot ETH ETFs currently hold 5.4% of ETH total supply. This highlights the scale of these structural allocations from DATs.

What sets DAT flows apart is their long-duration nature. Unlike futures traders or ETF arbitrage inflows, treasury allocations are less likely to rotate capital frequently, making them a source of sticky structural demand.

Conclusion

Across on-chain and off-chain liquidity metrics, one theme is clear: ETH’s institutional participation is still in the early stages compared to bitcoin. Realized cap growth, ETF inflow composition and derivatives market structure all point to significant untapped potential.

At the same time, DAT allocations are becoming a powerful driver of sustained ETH flows, much like how corporate balance sheet strategies such as Strategy created a new structural demand channel that helped fuel bitcoin’s rally in late 2024.

If institutional adoption of ETH follows a trajectory similar to bitcoin’s, the coming months could see meaningful capital inflows, and with them, the potential for outsized performance.

-  Kelly Ye, deputy CIO, Avenir Group &  Helena Lam, quantitative researcher, Avenir Group 

As always, get the latest crypto news from coindesk.com and market updates from coindesk.com/indices.

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