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Balance of Power
French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote
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The Baron de Breteuil had the misfortune to be appointed chief minister of France three days before the storming of the Bastille, on July 14, 1789.

The Revolution abruptly ended his term, although he at least kept his head.

France isn’t facing quite such turbulent times today. But prime ministers come and go with shocking regularity and the government seems perennially on the verge of collapse.

The latest crisis arrived this week as Prime Minister François Bayrou — the sixth premier under President Emmanuel Macron — called a vote of confidence for Sept. 8 to try and browbeat the opposition into passing the budget.

The trigger this time is France’s ballooning debt and the minority government’s efforts to tackle it. The root cause changes, but the outcome is the same: political instability.

This isn’t a purely French phenomenon. Governments across Europe are struggling with the basic task of governing.

In the Netherlands, Prime Minister Dick Schoof made it through a no-confidence motion yesterday. It’s merely a stay of execution, however, since his administration operates in a caretaker capacity after the previous government fell.

In Spain, Pedro Sánchez heads a minority administration that’s suffered a string of corruption allegations and may be one scandal away from collapse.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is suddenly competing for power after a strident nationalist took the presidency, while next door in Germany, the grand coalition government of the two main parties is widely seen as failing to tackle the country’s many ills.

Little more than a year after winning a landslide, the UK’s Labour government seems incapable of pulling out of its downward spiral.

Given the prevailing headwinds, who could have predicted that Italy under Giorgia Meloni would emerge as a relative bastion of stability?

Hers is an exception, though. The truth is that much of Europe looks close to ungovernable.  Alan Crawford

Macron and Meloni in Rome on June 3. Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Prompted by Donald Trump’s escalating effort to weaponize global trade policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote to his Indian counterpart back in March to test the waters on improving ties, a source says. While it wasn’t until June that Prime Minister Narendra Modi began a serious effort to smooth relations with Beijing, the rapprochement now appears to be accelerating after both nations were stung by the US president’s tariffs.

Russia unleashed overnight drone and missile strikes on Kyiv, killing at least 15 people, according to Ukrainian authorities. The European Union is mulling introducing secondary sanctions in an effort to stop third countries helping Russia circumvent the bloc’s punitive measures, sources say, while White House trade adviser Peter Navarro cranked up pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases that he said are funding “the war machine.”

The “Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine” in Kyiv on Aug. 24. Photographer: Oleksii Filippov/AFP/Getty Images

Israel carried out airstrikes on the southern outskirts of Syria’s capital Damascus, undermining efforts to ease tensions between the Middle East neighbors. Israel welcomed President Bashar al-Assad’s December ouster because he was a key ally of arch-enemy Iran, but is wary of new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa given his past as an Islamist fighter, and has warned Western powers to be cautious. Meanwhile, the US rejected a United Nations-backed report that declared a famine in Gaza.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will visit China for a military parade on Sept. 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, a rare trip that would place him alongside other leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beijing has been Pyongyang’s main backer for years, keeping its economy afloat even as the US and its partners repeatedly urged the government to use its influence to curb Kim’s nuclear ambitions.

Argentina said it successfully rolled over a large batch of local debt yesterday, passing a key test for President Javier Milei’s strategy to contain a slide in the peso ahead of national mid-term elections at the end of October. Milei, meanwhile, escaped unscathed after being pelted with stones while campaigning with his sister in Buenos Aires province, where voters head to the polls on Sept. 7.

Protesters throw stones at Milei yesterday. Photographer: Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty Images

European powers are expected to refer Iran back to the UN to face the re-imposition of tougher sanctions after its government failed to comply with demands to negotiate with the US and allow international atomic inspectors to resume their work. 

The US migrant-detention camp known as Alligator Alcatraz may soon be emptied, just two months after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had it built to support Trump’s pledge to deport millions of immigrants.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity ebbed in August, suggesting the momentum he gained from a trade fight with Trump was short-lived.

After more than 150 days in court, the Hong Kong trial of 77-year-old ex-media mogul and democracy advocate Jimmy Lai has come to an end.

On this week’s episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders and Noah Smith, a former columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and now a prominent Substack writer, ask whether — if the Democratic party returns to power — it should return to the neoliberal policies of the Obama administration, or find its own populist message to match that of Trump? Or perhaps something in between? Listen on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

As Trump ramps up efforts to control the Federal Reserve, investors worry he’ll use central-bank tools to fix something that’s not supposed to be the institution’s problem: ballooning US debt bills. Most economists say the solution lies in borrowing less, via some combination of reduced spending and higher taxes — rather than leaning on the Fed to make borrowing cheaper. In an appearance on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, Liz Truss, the former UK premier who has blamed the Bank of England for her historically short tenure, praised Trump for bringing the world’s central banks closer to what she said was a needed reckoning.

And Finally

Europe has suffered its worst year on record for wildfires, with over 1 million hectares burnt. The blazes that raged across Greece, Turkey and Cyprus this summer were 22% more intense and 10 times more likely than they would have been in a world without climate change. That’s according to researchers from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists that conducts fast studies using peer-reviewed methods to determine the influence of global warming on extreme events.

Residents tackle a wildfire in western Greece this month. Photographer: Aris Messinis/Getty Images

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