Tariff Tensions in Asia, Policy Strains in Taiwan, and a Former Thai Prime Minister Acquitted |
Craftsmen in Surat, India, work to process diamonds, a specialty export targeted by U.S. tariffs that stand to threaten India's jewelry industry, among others. (Amit Dave/Reuters) |
In this month’s newsletter, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) experts break down Taiwanese politics, the acquittal of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on American influence in Asia, among other topics. |
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Trump’s initial 25 percent “reciprocal” tariff on India sought to remedy the growing U.S.-India trade deficit by pressuring New Delhi to open its markets to American goods. Weeks later, no trade deal has been struck, while the U.S. imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on imports effective August 27 from India, in theory for its continued purchases of Russian oil. Those actions have badly strained relations. Both countries have kept diplomatic channels open, but Trump’s tough rhetoric has incensed public opinion in India and left Prime Minister Narendra Modi little room for concessions, argues Distinguished Fellow Kenneth I. Juster. Get his take on the negotiations
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In recent weeks, Trump has attracted global attention (and criticism) for his transactional treatment of Washington’s most prominent economic partners. That fixation on large economies has allowed little consideration for the potential ruin the White House’s tariffs could cause in some of the world’s poorest states, especially those in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. As China continues its charm offensive across the Indo-Pacific, Trump’s tariff rates could undermine U.S. influence in Laos, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste, while sending their economies into freefall, note Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia & South Asia Joshua Kurlantzick and Research Associate Annabel Richter. Read the full blog post
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China, Taiwan, and U.S. Relations |
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Following a grassroots campaign by supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party to recall members of the opposition, Taiwan’s Nationalist Party (KMT), in the legislature for potentially trying to push Taiwan closer to China and reduce executive power, all twenty-four KMT legislators survived the vote to remove them from office. With the campaign’s failure, President Lai Ching-te and his Democratic Progressive Party will face a continued uphill battle to push their agenda in the legislature, where the KMT still holds a majority, writes Fellow for Asia Studies David Sacks. Get his analysis
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For decades, Taiwan’s presidents have passed through the United States en route to state visits with the few countries that still maintain formal relations with Taiwan, making those informal stops a hallmark of U.S.-Taiwan relations because they allow U.S. policymakers to visit the Taiwanese leaders while in transit for extended stops. The Trump administration’s recent cancellation of Lai’s passage through New York risks undermining the United States’ ability to communicate with Taiwanese leaders, argues Sacks in a post for Asia Unbound. Read the rest of the story
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The advent of dollar-backed stablecoins under a new piece of U.S. legislation has caused unusual concern in China. The freely circulating nature of stablecoins—a form of cryptocurrency uniquely pegged to stable commodities—threatens the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to control financial flows and police access to foreign currencies. As evidenced by the party’s crackdowns on crypto in years past, Beijing is unlikely to stand by quietly as innovations to global monetary policy threaten its finely tuned system of financial repression, warns Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies Zongyuan Zoe Liu in Foreign Policy. Read the article
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Regimes and Reform in Southeast Asia |
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In a decision that has bucked the trend of almost surefire convictions linked to Thailand’s lèse-majesté laws, a criminal court acquitted former prime minister and leading power broker Thaksin Shinawatra of royal insult charges. Kurlantzick posits in a post for Asia Unbound that Thaksin could have been acquitted so the army and monarchy can use him to prevent more political liberalization—or, in a possible shift in Thailand, to actually help push forward electoral democracy. Get the full story
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Despite formally ceding power to his son in 2023, Cambodia’s former prime minister Hun Sen has continued to dominate the country’s domestic and foreign policy. Amid revived armed conflict across the border between Cambodia and Thailand, before a ceasefire, Hun Sen capitalized on the conflict to reinforce his image as Cambodia’s de facto leader, argue Kurlantzick and CFR International Affairs Fellow Mike Rattanasengchanh in a post for Asia Unbound. Learn more
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In recent years, the government of Brunei has begun to implement major changes to its economic model, inspired by widespread transformation in the Gulf societies of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Hoping to minimize dependency on its oil reserves, the sultanate has adopted strategies to diversify its economy and introduce social reforms to boost tourism, trade, and the migration of more skilled workers. However, the country’s tiny size and conservative social norms could hinder its success, writes Kurlantzick for World Politics Review. Read on
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Kurlantzick sat down with CFR’s Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy and Director of Fellowship Affairs James M. Lindsay to discuss the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. |
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With Drones and “Elephant Mosquitoes,” China Wages All-Out War on a Virus (Yanzhong Huang, New York Times)
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China Deploys “Cannibal” Mosquitoes and Killer Fish to Fight Chikungunya (Yanzhong Huang, The Telegraph)
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Did Chinese Authorities Take a Page From the COVID-19 Playbook for Chikungunya? (Yanzhong Huang, South China Morning Post)
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Chikungunya Outbreak in China (Yanzhong Huang, NPR)
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China’s Influence in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains (Yanzhong Huang, ChinaPower)
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Battle of the Bulge: Will China’s Home-Grown Obesity Drugs Reshape Global Weight Loss Market? (Yanzhong Huang, Straits Times)
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Thailand and Cambodia Clash Across the Border (Joshua Kurlantzick, War on the Rocks)
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Singapore Is Dodging the Trade-War Bullet. Diversification Is How. (Joshua Kurlantzick, Barron’s)
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Bangladesh a Year Later: Democracy Is Easier Said Than Done (Joshua Kurlantzick, GZERO Media)
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1 Year On: Bangladesh Rebalances Foreign Policy After Hasina’s Exit (Joshua Kurlantzick, Anadolu Ajansı)
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Ceasefire Halts Cambodia-Thailand Border Clash, but Tensions Remain (Joshua Kurlantzick, National Security News)
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Thai-Cambodia Ceasefire an ASEAN Win—but U.S., China “Loomed Large.” What Roles Did They Play? (Joshua Kurlantzick, Channel News Asia)
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Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict Is About Much More Than Temples (in Dutch) (Joshua Kurlantzick, Financieel Dagblad)
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5 Takeaways From New U.S. Tariffs: Trump and UK Win, South Korea Loses (Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Nikkei Asia)
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SCOTUS Should Uphold Ruling to Strike Down Tariffs, says Fmr. Trade Official Matt Gold (Zongyuan Zoe Liu, CNBC)
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China’s Strategy? Let Trump Cook. (Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Washington Post)
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“It’s Not a War, but a New Economic Order”: Zongyuan Zoe Liu Analyzes the Future of Europe and China and the Clash With Donald Trump (in Portuguese) (Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Expresso)
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U.S.-India Tensions Cast Doubt on Future of Quad, as Well as Possible Trump Visit (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, South China Morning Post)
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Why Is India Rebuffing Trump Over Russian Oil? (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, GZERO Media)
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Trump Administration Told Taiwan’s President to Avoid New York Stopover (David Sacks, New York Times)
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The Alliance With the United States, a Pillar of Postwar Japanese Diplomacy (in Japanese) (Sheila A. Smith, Jiji)
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The Clock Is Ticking on Critical Authorities to Compete With China (Rush Doshi, Lawfare)
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The Asia program at the Council on Foreign Relations informs policymakers, business leaders, and the public about the complex challenges facing the world’s largest continent.
To stay up to date on the latest Asia-related commentary and analysis, follow CFR’s Asia program on X and visit our blog Asia Unbound. |
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