Qatar is a small wealthy country surrounded by bombastic neighbours in a volatile region. Its population is about 3 million, only 13% of whom are Qatari citizens. The rest of the population is made up largely of migrant workers.
Qatar made a calculation about a decade ago that in order to remain safe, it must be indispensable to geopolitical superpowers that shape the region. It did so by becoming the global capital of diplomacy. Nesrine Malik sketches out just how Qatar became so crucial in mediation efforts in her brilliant long read on the Gulf state.
As she notes, Qatar was central to the negotiations with the Taliban as the US withdrew its troops from Afghanistan; the return of some Ukrainian children from Russia; the return of US hostages from Iran; the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners in Israel; as well as a brief ceasefire in Gaza. The rich Gulf country is running 10 active mediations, aiming to cement its status as the Switzerland of the Middle East.
“It has to keep a lot of people sweet and, as we say in Arabic, play on both ropes, because it can’t really afford to alienate anyone dramatically,” Nesrine told me. “It has to be the US partner in the region. It has to be the party that can speak to everyone: to Hamas, the Taliban, to all sorts of disparate groups that the US and other countries do not have direct links with. That becomes its sort of protective raison d’être.”
That strategy of protection has suffered a major blow after Israel’s deadly strike on Qatari soil, coming on the heels of Iran’s barrage of rockets earlier this year during its war with Israel. So what comes next?
A crack in the US shield
You may be surprised to learn that Qatar is the second largest purchaser of US foreign military sales (FMS). I certainly was.
This is part of Qatar’s long established partnership with the US. “It is the US’s largest security partner in the region. There’s a large airbase which has more than 10,000 US troops. That base is entirely funded by Qatar and actually hosts the central command for the US military in the region,” Nesrine said.
For Qatar, that airbase has acted like a shield. “It was supposed to mean that no one could really attack Qatar meaningfully, because that would put US military assets and personnel in the line of fire. What that calculation did not assume was that Israel would attack [Qatar] to try to eliminate Hamas individuals, because the assumption was that Israel and the US were of the same mind, right?”
There are conflicting reports on what the US knew about the attack. While Israeli media suggests the US gave the green light, US outlets have reported that Donald Trump was unhappy and in the dark about it.
“From the Qatari perspective, if you cannot control Israel, or if the US and Israel are not reliable partners, then investing in the US relationship, which Qatar has done massively, is no longer a guarantor of security,” Nesrine said.
She points to a recent report that the Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, told US special convoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff that if the US can’t protect Qatar, then it will need to look to other partners. This marks a profound shift in how the Gulf state thinks about sovereignty.
Israel’s crushing dominance
It is notable how quickly Israel took responsibility for the attack. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, defended the strike amid mounting international criticism, and warned Qatar that either it must “expel” Hamas members or “bring them to justice, because if you don’t, we will”.
Qatar pushed back at Israel’s rhetoric – calling it a “shameful attempt … to justify the cowardly attack that targeted Qatari territory, as well as the explicit threats of future violations of state sovereignty”. But in reality, it is in an extremely difficult position.
Nesrine tells me that for Qatar to retaliate militarily, using the equipment it has bought for billions, would be a terrifying escalation.
Nesrine describes Israel as having “been given carte blanche to do what it wants”, pointing to the “Gaza riviera” plan to ethnically cleanse Palestinians and forcibly resettle them in Jordan and Egypt.
“They’re constantly squeezing Arab countries to accept ever more subordination, subjugation and humiliation. And now the violation of the sovereignty of the US’s most reliable, closest partner in the region pushes all these Arab states from the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] to the rest of the region into undeniable vassalage,” Nesrine said.
She added that the latter is desirable for Israel. “It seems the wider campaign is to not only dominate Palestinians but the entire region. The point is that the prior settlement where there was implicit trust and quid pro quo, which gave Gulf states some sense of control over their fate, is gone.”
Possible end of the Abraham accords
The question facing countries in the region that have been staunch US allies is the same one that Europe has been trying to answer: what happens after the US abandons us?
Nesrine describes Gulf countries as being like siblings. “They’re not close on a day to day basis and actually [they are] even often hostile. But when one of them is attacked, they rally together really quickly because they realise that the security and integrity of one country is the security integrity of all.”
After Qatar was attacked, the sharpest condemnation came from other countries in the GCC. Leaders from the UAE touched down in Qatar to offer their solidarity, followed by Saudi Arabia. It is worth noting that the UAE has diverged sharply on Israel from its neighbours, normalising their relations during Trump’s first term. But as Nesrine explained: “What might happen, and what it looks like is happening, is the death of the Abraham accords.”
Those accords, among other things, normalised relations with Israel on the agreement that it would not annex the occupied Palestinian territories. So on 4 September, in a rare public rebuke, a UAE diplomat told Israeli media that annexation of the West Bank was a red line and would lead to the accord’s unravelling.
That warning did not appear to be heeded – within days Netanyahu announced approval of the controversial E1 settlement, which slices the West Bank in two, destroying any remaining hope of a two-state solution. The Israeli prime minister declared “there will be no Palestinian state” and vowed to annex the West Bank.
Israel’s actions last week also show its reach can go much further than the occupied Palestinian territories. “It is this sense that Israel’s hand can reach into Damascus, Tehran, Doha, southern Lebanon … This impacts or undermines these countries’ ability to think of themselves as states that have any sort of volition,” Nesrine said. “And if you do want to act out of your own volition, what Israel is making very clear is that it’s not going to be a matter of words, or finger-wagging, or diplomatic fallout – it’s going to be a big military conflict immediately. So … any contemplation of challenging Israel, or going against it, becomes a question of annihilation.”
But that also comes with a cost to Israel. “If Gulf countries freeze Israel out, that sends the message: your fate is to remain an isolated, belligerent state in the region that can only operate through brute force. In the short term, Israel’s right is fine with that. In the long term, it’s corrosive, draining and costly,” Nesrine said.
The next few days will determine whether Gulf and other Arab countries are willing to finally stand on their own two feet.
