Both Washington and Wall Street were watching today as the Federal Reserve officials weighed in on interest rates amid a lot of pressure from President Donald Trump. Chris Anstey, an economics editor in Boston, is here with a rundown. Plus: How Charlie Kirk’s death became a memecoin, the Elon, Inc., finale is live now, and the dean of MIT Sloan discusses threats to higher ed. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. Although the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, as universally expected, on Wednesday, it’s far from clear that the US central bank has embarked on a new policy-easing cycle. “You could think of this, in a way, as a risk-management cut,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference following the 25-basis-point cut in the benchmark rate, to a target range of 4% to 4.25%. He said the move reflected “the much lower level of job creation and other evidence of softening in the labor market” apparent in data in recent weeks. As for where the economy is headed from here, however, he flagged risks to both of the Fed’s main mandates: price stability and full employment. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates plays on a television on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg He was also reasonably clear in saying these risks are coming in part from President Donald Trump’s policies. Reduced immigration has contributed to the slowdown in job creation, and “perhaps all of the increase in inflation over the course of this year” comes from goods prices, which have been affected by Trump’s tariff hikes. It’s not US trading partners who are paying those tariffs, he specified. Powell also cautioned that price pressures are expected to “continue to build over the course of the rest of the year and into next year.” But “our tools can’t do two things at once,” the Fed chief said—in other words, tame inflation and support the job market. So policy isn’t on any preset path now. That’s not at all where Trump and his allies see things, as was apparent in the Fed policymaker projections released alongside the rate decision Wednesday. One “dot” in the updated plot of projections by Fed governors and reserve bank presidents for the benchmark rate incorporated 50-basis-point cuts today and at the Fed’s two remaining meetings this year—more easing than anyone else predicted. Fed watchers said there’s little doubt that dot came from Stephen Miran, who until he joined the Fed board on Tuesday was Trump’s White House chief economist. Miran dissented in favor of a half-point cut in Wednesday’s vote but got nobody else’s support. Which was a bit of a surprise, as some analysts had anticipated the other two Trump appointees on the Fed board, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, would be on the same page. “The only way for any voter to really move things around is to be incredibly persuasive,” Powell said. Apparently, Miran was not. The Fed chair, who has been on the board himself since 2012, seemed to push back at the idea that Trump could bully the institution into a rate-cut path that incurred economic danger. To shift policy requires “really strong arguments based on the data and one’s understanding of the economy.” “And that’s how it’s going to work,” he said. “That’s in the DNA of the institution. That’s not going to change.” For good measure, Powell also pushed back against Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s call for an independent review of the US central bank, saying he was “not going to comment on anything the secretary says.” While he said the Fed is open to “always trying to do better,” he also highlighted that the Fed already just did a policy framework review, and is going through a 10% headcount reduction. Perhaps most provocative to Trump and his team, Powell continued to hold out the possibility that he stays on the Fed board even after his term as chair ends in May. (His governorship runs to January 2028.) That would limit Trump’s ability to revamp its leadership. “I have nothing new on that for you today.” For now at least, Wednesday demonstrated that it’s still a Powell Fed, and very far from a Trump one. RELATED: On today’s Big Take podcast, Fed and US economy reporter Amara Omeokwe and host David Gura discuss what the rate cut says about the state of the US job market, the broader economy and the central bank’s independence. Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or iHeart. |