Economic signals are all over the place. GDP is rising—but hiring is slowing. Consumer spending has proved resilient—but consumer confidence is slipping. The stock market is up—but businesses aren’t hiring. Annie Lowrey writes that the U.S. economy “has several stories to tell.”
Last week’s federal shutdown added another layer of complexity. Each week of closure could shave 0.1 percent off quarterly GDP growth, according to Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. Up to 750,000 federal employees are being furloughed, costing the workers $400 million in wages a day, and the White House estimates that a month-long shutdown would eliminate 43,000 jobs, Lowrey reports. The immediate risk is clear—but the broader question, she writes, is whether this could finally tip the country into a long-feared recession.
“Washington has already put itself in a recession,” Lowrey writes. “Maybe the rest of the country is next.” Today’s newsletter is about the confusing state of the U.S. economy—and whether the government shutdown could turn uncertainty into something worse.
