Red October hasn’t looked too good lately for the Phillies. So now they’ll try Blue October as they’re wearing their powder blues for Wednesday’s elimination game. The Phils could be nine innings away from their season ending. Or maybe they just needed to change their uniforms.
Also in this edition:
- Head scratcher: Jimmy Rollins said it looked like the Phils had “no game plan” on their failed bunt.
- Ohtani Time: The Phillies have so far quieted Shohei Ohtani. That could change in Game 3.
- Windy city: How do the Phils respond on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium?
— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)
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Still thinking about that bunt
My first reaction last week after watching the Dodgers dismantle the Reds in Game 1 of their wild-card series was that they were going to sweep the Phillies. They were too good and too powerful. So I’m not surprised that the Dodgers have a 2-0 lead. But I aam stunned at how it unfolded: two losses at home that should have been wins. And I still can’t believe they bunted.
The Dodgers opened the door for the Phils by not using Roki Sasaki to start the ninth on Monday as Dave Roberts said afterward that he wanted to avoid using the starter-turned-closer twice in three days. That was the time for the Phillies to kick the door open and they nearly did. But then they tried to play for a tie at home in the ninth inning against the defending champions. That’s when they lost the game.
Just like the calculus had to change in Game 1 when they scored three runs vs. Shohei Ohtani, the calculus had to change in Game 2 when the Dodgers tried to complete a save with their troubled bullpen instead of Sasaki. He wasn’t even warming up as he watched the game in the bullpen with his jacket on. The Phils’ best chance to win the game was in that inning. It’s October. Go for it. Win the game.
They instead tried to give up an out and bunt with Bryson Stott, who has the team’s second-best contact rate, and move over Nick Castellanos, one of their worst-graded runners. It was an old-school move that doesn’t work in October when teams win by being aggressive.
The plan — which the Phils stuck too even after the Dodgers showed them their wheel play — predictably backfired and cost them the game.
According to Baseball sabermetrician Tango Tiger, a successful bunt would have actually hurt the Phils’ chance to win the game. The Phils had a 43.8% chance to win when Stott was at-bat and would have had a 41.6% chance to win with Castellanos on third and one out. It’s hard to reason why the Phils did it.
The Phils had a chance against the defending champions. The momentum was on their side, the ballpark was rocking, and an epic finish felt near. They instead played it safe and tried to tie the game instead of going for the win. Imagine the tone entering Game 3 if the Phillies stunned the Dodgers on Monday night. They had their chance. But now they’re one game away from being swept.
Coverage cleanup
