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Island nations in the Indian Ocean are navigating stormy political waters.

In Madagascar, the president claimed there is a plot to kill him and went into hiding following weeks of so-called Gen Z Mada protests that drew backing from an army faction. At least 22 people have died.

Members of Madagascar’s CAPSAT army unit are greeted by protesters in Antananarivo. Photographer: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

Andry Rajoelina hasn’t disclosed his location, but the 51-year old former mayor is widely thought to have fled the country.  

One of the world’s poorest nations, Madagascar has endured several coups since gaining independence in 1960. They include the army-backed intervention that first propelled Rajoelina to power in 2009.

The youth-led demonstrations mirror protests that have erupted elsewhere in Africa and Asia, amid anger at inequality and corruption among a generation who feel left behind.

The upheaval in Madagascar contrasts starkly with peaceful political transitions in two smaller island nations.

WATCH: Bloomberg’s Ondiro Oganga discusses the upheaval in Madagascar.

In Seychelles, President Wavel Ramkalawan lost a re-election bid, despite his track record in leading the tourism-dependent economy out of the coronavirus pandemic and improving public finances. He’ll be replaced by Patrick Herminie, a medical doctor, and has promised a smooth handover. 

And in Mauritius, Navinchandra Ramgoolam returned to office for a fourth term as prime minister late last year. He replaced Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, who bore the brunt of voter disgruntlement over falling living standards. 

While Madagascar’s political crisis has yet to fully play out, the odds of Rajoelina being able to retain power appear slim. He dissolved the National Assembly and Senate on Tuesday — a move that appears aimed at thwarting an opposition impeachment bid. 

The latest developments — both on the streets and at polling stations — will leave many leaders sitting a little less comfortably. — Kamlesh Bhuckory and Alister Bull

Key stories and opinion:
Madagascar’s President in Hiding, Claiming Plot to Take His Life
Army Faction Joins Madagascar Protesters After Declaring Support 
Gen Z Anger at Ruling Elites Is Erupting Across the World  
Seychelles Opposition Chief Beats Incumbent President in Runoff 
Gen Z Protests Will Spread as Leaders Fail Youth: Justice Malala

The Bloomberg Africa Business Summit, an official sideline event of B20 South Africa 2025, convenes global leaders on Nov. 17 and 18 to address the critical issues shaping Africa’s future. Register your interest to attend. 

As many as 237 people were arrested in Ivory Coast on Saturday during a banned opposition protest over upcoming elections. The demonstration in Abidjan was called by ex-President Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, both of whom have been barred from contesting the Oct. 25 vote. Incumbent Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth term.

Police officers detain a protester in Abidjan on Oct. 11. Photographer: AFP/Getty Images

Talks between Ethiopia’s government and holders of a $1 billion bond that’s in default collapsed, with both sides agreeing to terminate talks. The Ethiopia Ad Hoc Bondholder Committee, whose members collectively hold more than 40% of the 2024 notes, said it proposed a “material upfront haircut” on the outstanding debt. In return, the group wanted a mechanism to boost payouts in the event of Ethiopia’s export earnings improving in coming years.

A rare bout of economic stability in Zimbabwe will be jeopardized if the government scraps domestic use of the dollar by 2030 as planned, according to the country’s largest independently owned fund manager. Imara Asset Management cautioned the authorities not to “rock the boat” by following through on its intention to have the gold-backed ZiG replace the greenback, which is used for about 85% of payments. Widespread adoption of the dollar has made it easier to transact and plan, it said.

A ZiG banknote. Photographer: Cynthia R Matonhodze/Bloomberg

Cobalt prices extended gains to a three-year high as export curbs in the world’s top producing country threaten to create a shortage of the battery material. A ban on shipments by the Democratic Republic of the Congo has roiled supply chains since it was imposed in February, while a quota system that will replace it this week could push the market into deficit as soon as next year. 

South Africa’s trade minister said his country is close to striking a trade deal with the US. “We are on the verge of negotiating an agreement around tariffs, and how they can be reciprocally beneficial,” Parks Tau said. US President Donald Trump slapped 30% levies on some imports from South Africa in August, and Pretoria has been trying to get them lowered ever since. The tariffs put thousands of jobs at risk.  

A cargo ship anchored off the coast of Cape Town. Photographer: Mike Cohen/Bloomberg

Yields on Cameroon’s dollar bonds rose after an opposition leader claimed victory in elections, raising the prospect of political instability in the central African nation. Results from the Oct. 12 vote, in which Paul Biya sought to extend his more than four-decade rule, are still being tallied. With no succession plan in place, the 92-year-old leader’s re-election bid has fueled concern that a power vacuum may emerge in the oil-exporting nation.

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz and congratulations to Paul Inbona, who was first to correctly identify Ghana as the African country with the world’s best-performing stock market this year.

The first oil-export terminal to be constructed in Nigeria in 50 years is expanding to help cater for increased output from local firms. Green Energy International built and operates the Otakikpo onshore facility, which is capable of storing 750,000 barrels of crude. Work is underway to increase that to 3 million barrels, CEO Anthony Adegbulugbe said in an interview. 

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back in your inbox with the next edition on Friday. Send any feedback to mcohen21@bloomberg.net