| Emmanuel Macron’s self-styled “warrior monk” prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, this week survived his second attempt at forming a government after the first ended in farce. The risk of snap parliamentary elections has receded but so has the momentum behind getting public finances under control. It’s a temporary truce in a fragile environment.  Sebastien Lecornu. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg The price for winning over the center-left in a gridlocked parliament where the extremes are on the rise was steep. Suspending Macron’s divisive 2023 hike to the retirement age will cost €2.2 billion in total over the next two years. The question of what to do about this reform will then be kicked to 2027 presidential elections. It may end up just as toxic. There’s also the small matter of the budget. Another concession to the opposition by 39-year-old Lecornu has been to not use article 49.3, a way to push through legislation (including aforementioned pension reform) by decree. That promises to make budget debates more volatile in a parliament where there’s little support for unpopular cuts. It also promises to take an ax to tax stability, with “one-off” levies likely to be repeated. And politically, while Lecornu’s government has lived to fight another day, the center has emerged structurally weaker. Macron’s leftward turn is creating divisions in his own camp and will make the Gaullist Republicains more vulnerable to Marine Le Pen’s advances. Avoiding snap elections before 2027 doesn’t seem like a done deal yet. What all this adds up to is a damage-limitation exercise that brings its own dangers. Macron’s hoped-for revolution in French society is unravelling, and European allies will wonder how far the chaos can spread. Historian Jean Garrigues says we’re near the peak of a “crisis of confidence” in the ability of politicians to deliver for the people. With Le Pen and her No. 2 Jordan Bardella in pole position for the next election, the question will be whether what comes next will be radical change or a continuity of what Garrigues calls the “tripartition” of French voters between far-left, far-right and center. A lot will depend on who emerges as the most credible anti-Le Pen candidate. If Lecornu proves adept at navigating the winding path ahead, he just might be one to watch. Patrick Drahi’s telecom company Altice France rejected a €17 billion bid from a trio of French phone carriers to take over and break up struggling operator SFR. France is widening anti-money laundering checks on crypto exchanges, as regulators seek to determine which of more than 100 crypto services entities in the country will get EU-wide permits in the coming months. France’s bond market faces the risk of more uncertainty from looming credit-rating decisions. The French Perrodo oil billionaires’ family office is exploring new residential property deals in the US, reflecting the firm’s growing status as a major real estate and private equity investor. Pernod Ricard SA’s sales fell more than expected on a sharp slump in demand in China and the clearing out of excess stock in the US. Luxury tycoon Bernard Arnault’s wealth just got a big boost from shoppers around the globe, and the rise could feed into controversy at home. Monday: Stellantis CEO meets Italian unions; Macron at EU summit in Slovenia
Tuesday: L’Oreal sales
Wednesday: Reports from Hermes, Kering, Carrefour, Michelin
Thursday: Reports from Renault, Orange, Vinci; French October business and manufacturing confidence; Macron at EU summit in Brussels
Friday: French October consumer confidence; French October preliminary PMI data Luxury might not exactly be “back” as an industry, but it is certainly moving in the right direction, writes Bloomberg Opinion's Andrea Felsted.  A Louis Vuitton luxury boutique in Paris. Photographer: Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg | 
