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Brussels Edition
EU in waiting mode as Trump plots a new peace deal
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Bloomberg
with Samuel Stolton

Welcome to the Brussels Edition. I’m Sam Stolton, EU competition reporter with Bloomberg, bringing you the latest from the EU. Make sure you’re signed up.

One major conflict down, one to go. After rubber-stamping an end to the war between Israel and Hamas, Donald Trump — the self-styled “president of peace” — has his sights fixed on forging an armistice between Ukraine and Russia.

Trump’s proposed tête-à-tête with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on EU soil in Budapest drew cautious approval from the European Commission in Brussels today. The EU executive backs “any steps that lead to a just and lasting peace for Ukraine,” spokesman Olof Gill said, adding that if “the proposed meeting serves this purpose,” the institution would welcome it.

But there’s no getting away from the reality that for the EU, there is an awkwardness in the choice of venue. European allies are likely to fret that selecting Budapest as the host city may have been a strategic ploy from Putin to drive a wedge between the EU and the US.

While such geopolitical anxieties may be well-founded, it was Trump, rather than the Russian leader, who pitched Budapest as the meeting place, according to the Kremlin. In this sense, the US president — cognizant of Orban’s bonhomie with Putin — is leveraging his network of MAGA-allied leaders to target major geopolitical wins on the world stage.

Photographer: Bloomberg Daybreak/Getty Images

Regardless of who chose Budapest and why, it’s a move that ultimately diminishes the influence of the EU in any future peace agreement, as the renewed effort to halt fighting comes at a time when the bloc is scrambling to bolster its own defense readiness in response to Russia’s threat.

The coming meeting — still yet to have a firm date — could also encounter a sanctions-related snag. While Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have only been hit by the EU with asset freezes rather travel bans, Brussels has implemented restrictions on flights that are Russian-controlled, Russian-registered or Russian-chartered.

Under these measures, it would be very difficult for Putin to board a Russian flight into Budapest, unless Hungary’s Orban derogates from the rules — permittable in exceptional circumstances, which this surely is.

The Hungarian prime minister — now playing an instrumental role in Ukraine’s future grasp for peace — will discuss this and more in calls with Putin today, as he prepares his capital for what could be a war-ending summit.  

The Latest

  • EU officials approved €1.5 billion to improve Europe’s defense readiness, with a fifth of the amount earmarked for defense cooperation with Ukraine.
  • Italy’s government coalition has reached an agreement over a complex plan that would see banks and insurers contribute about €11 billion to its budget over three years.
  • An improved UK relationship with the EU would help the Bank of England keep inflation under control, BOE policymaker Megan Greene said.
  • The roughly $7 billion batch of European IPOs this fall has shown sellers must balance the risk of upfront cash versus leaving enough room for the stocks to trade higher.
  • Giorgio Armani appointed company veteran Giuseppe Marsocci as CEO as the Italian fashion house considers a potential sale following the death of its founder.

Seen and Heard on Bloomberg

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is happy with current monetary-policy settings and sees no reason to change them unless incoming data signal a shift in the outlook, the ECB Governing Council member said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Nagel also acknowledged the risk that China could redirect low-cost products to the region due to the US raising tariffs, stating that “China has to understand that they cannot flood Europe with cheap goods.”

The Number

800,000
This is how many seats Ryanair has cut from its winter capacity to Berlin and other German cities in a dispute over the country’s aviation taxes and access costs. High expenses make Germany “grossly uncompetitive” compared with other European countries, such as Sweden and Hungary, where taxes are being scrapped, it said.

Coming Up

  • EU Employment and Social Policy Ministers meet in Luxembourg today
  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk gives speech at an economic forum in Sopot this evening
  • EU Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luis Albuquerque attends WEF Europe Leaders Event in Washington later today

Final Thought

After the Portuguese government barred golden visa funds from going into real estate, more money has flowed into cultural institutions like the Museu do Caramulo. Photographer: Daniel Rodrigues

Portugal’s golden visa program has raised more than €7 billion since it was launched in 2012, with the bulk of the money initially going into real estate. With that avenue banned, investors can opt for a minimum €200,000 donation to a cultural non-profit organization or an investment of at least €500,000 in an approved investment fund.  The program, while bringing in money and visitors, has also raised questions about whether the cash would be better spent on healthcare, schools and infrastructure.

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