The Sprint for City HallWe’re one week out from the critical Nov. 4 election for New York City mayor.Good afternoon and welcome back to The Sprint for City Hall. I’m Katie Glueck. Election Day is in one week, early voting is already underway and political insiders are scouring turnout data for any hints about the direction of the race. Today we will look at whether the contest is tightening, check in on what Zohran Mamdani’s candidacy means for the left — and for those of you still deciding how to vote, we’ve got a new tool that might help you think through your options. We’ll start with the headlines.
CHARTING THE RACE Could this race be closer than advertised?For months, the mayor’s race has seemed static, with Mamdani appearing to be the unquestioned front-runner, followed by Cuomo and Sliwa. Even Eric Adams’s decision to drop his re-election bid didn’t seem to alter the trajectory. Could any of that change in the final stretch? Honestly — and I know this is an unsatisfying answer — it’s hard to say. Polls have shown some tightening in the contest, though Mamdani still has a sizable lead. A growing number of Republicans, including some Sliwa backers, have urged anti-Mamdani voters to embrace Cuomo. Some have urged Sliwa to drop out — but he isn’t going anywhere. And then there is the early-vote turnout data, which political obsessives are devouring as they search for clues about whether Mamdani will crack 50 percent of the vote or look for signs of life from the other candidates. Even Mamdani’s get-out-the-vote emails are getting in on the tea leaf-parsing while warning supporters against complacency. “The highest number of early voters so far are in age brackets where Cuomo either ties or leads Zohran in the latest polls,” read one campaign email sent Monday. My advice to readers: While early-voting data can be interesting, and potentially instructive as a way to gauge enthusiasm about the race, remember that it is also very easy to over-read or misread initial numbers. Just ask all the Democrats who were giddy about the promising signs for Hillary Clinton during the early-vote period in 2016.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
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Matt Flegenheimer has been writing memorable stories about New Yorkers for years, most recently capturing Mamdani’s high school experience and doing a deep dive on Mamdani’s alliance with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (don’t miss him on Cuomo or Adams, either). Here’s what he’s watching in the final stretch:
I’m curious about the most dispirited Democratic primary voters: the ones who refused to list Mamdani or Cuomo on their ranked-choice ballot, or who grudgingly ranked one of them fourth or fifth. Where do they go now?
Cuomo is seeking to position himself as the real Democrat, despite Mamdani’s status as the Democratic nominee. Has Cuomo moved any fence-sitters with that argument, or with his emphasis on experience?
On the flip side, have some never-Mamdani-or-Cuomo voters (or even some reluctant I’ll-rank-Cuomo-if-I-must voters) drifted toward the 34-year-old assemblyman, now that the former governor has lost the aura of inevitability that sustained him for much of the spring?
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| At Mamdani’s rally, which also featured Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the audience had a mixed reaction to Kathy Hochul, New York’s moderate governor. Vincent Alban/The New York Times |
On Sunday, Mamdani joined Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders at a large rally in Queens, a left-wing show of force that also drew more moderate officials including Hochul, who has endorsed Mamdani. Lisa Lerer, who covers national politics, was on the scene.
Katie Glueck: Lisa, what is at stake for the left if Mamdani wins?
Lisa Lerer: It would be a huge test of whether a young insurgent candidate rooted in left-wing activism can govern. And it won’t be easy: This is a city that sometimes seems ungovernable for anyone. Mamdani has also promised to pursue a series of ambitious policies to cut costs for residents, but they could be expensive and hard to enact.
KG: What scene has stayed with you from that rally?
LL: The most striking scene involved Hochul, who is running for re-election. When she took the stage, she was greeted with boos and chants of “tax the rich.” The moment underscored that for the left flank of the party, simply backing Mamdani politically — without fully embracing his agenda — may not be enough to build its trust in establishment Democratic candidates.
QUIZ
Fans of this section will be delighted to know that we have a treat awaiting: a fun but not exhaustive quiz that might help align you with a particular candidate. Your results may vary. You can take it here.
KEY DATES TO REMEMBER
From now through Nov. 2: Early voting.
Nov. 4: Election Day. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Are there any undecided voters left? If that’s you, what are you weighing? How, or when, do you plan to make your decision? Were you one of those never-Mamdani-or-Cuomo voters in the primary? How are you voting now? I’m at katie.glueck@nytimes.com and would love to hear from you.
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