Nvidia, OpenAI Advances Power Next Leg of AI Rally. How to Play It.

The biggest figures of the artificial-intelligence boom are both taking victory laps. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and OpenAI’s Sam Altman have plenty to celebrate, but it’s still the chip maker chief who looks best placed.

Nvidia just missed out on a $5 trillion valuation at yesterday’s close but is on track to surpass it today. Its semiconductors power everything from robo-taxis to drug discovery. And it’s not just flashy deals with no substance—Huang said Tuesday that Nvidia foresees up to $500 billion in revenue from its cutting-edge chips through 2026. Selling the picks and shovels, the hardware to deliver the AI gold rush is going to be profitable for a while yet.

OpenAI’s Altman can feel nearly as pleased. A successful conversion of the ChatGPT-developer to a more traditional corporate structure is set to unlock billions more in funding. A huge public listing could come as soon as 2027, according to The Wall Street Journal. But Altman had to give up a few things—backer Microsoft gets a 27% stake, plus an additional $250 billion for its cloud-computing services.

That’s a reminder hardware and infrastructure stocks are still where the profits are for now. ChatGPT might have 800 million users but OpenAI needs to find ways to monetize them or it will be inflating a cloud-computing bubble it can never afford to fund. Its integration with PayPal points the way toward a future where AI agents are buying the kids’ Christmas presents online. But it’s too late for this holiday season.

If you need clues as to where the power lies, just look at Huang’s next stop on his travels—South Korea to attend the summit where President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet Thursday. If a trade deal allows Nvidia to resume sales of its chips to China, the celebrations for the company and its suppliers will look more like a Roman triumph.

—Adam Clark

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As Trump-Xi Meeting Nears, Assessing the Chess Board

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to emerge from their meeting Thursday with a plan to stabilize the two countries’ frayed relationship and possibly a deal that includes lowering tariffs imposed by the U.S. fentanyl crackdown. But it’s unclear how quickly a deal can be implemented.

• Andy Rothman, head of China-focused research firm Sinology, expects a very modest deal, with China agreeing to continue shipments of critical rare earth elements and defer new restrictions and the U.S. promising to not increase tariffs further or to extend its own export restrictions on advanced technology.
• But there is also possibly a sweeter deal that includes Beijing doing more to curb the sale of chemicals used to make the drug fentanyl, resuming its purchase of American soybeans, or approving ByteDance’s divestment of TikTok’s U.S. operation, if Trump is willing to deepen concessions, Rothman says.
• One possible concession could be a suspension of some of the tariffs imposed because of fentanyl to assess progress on China’s efforts, says David Meale, who leads Eurasia Group’s China practice and is a former State Department official. That could boost stocks in the U.S. and China.
• For the U.S. to win on soybean purchases and assurances on rare earths, it could rescind some export controls on tech—or allow China to buy more advanced chips from Nvidia. It could also stop pressuring third countries in Asia and Europe to curtail their business with China.

What’s Next: FBI Director Kash Patel is expected to travel to China next month, possibly allowing for some sort of tariff deal related to fentanyl. Cutting those 20% tariffs could complicate things by lowering the current tariffs to be in line with or lower than some southeast Asian countries.

—Reshma Kapadia

Nvidia’s Market Value Nears $5 Trillion. The CEO Shares Outlook.

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang appeared at the chip maker’s technology conference in Washington to talk about the importance of building artificial intelligence infrastructure inside the U.S. His remarks and the many deals announced using Nvidia chips sent the company’s market value to nearly $5 trillion.

• Nvidia’s Blackwell AI platform is in full production in Arizona, a nod to President Trump’s cajoling of industry to bring manufacturing back onshore. Huang told attendees that Nvidia has visibility into more than $500 billion in cumulative revenue from Blackwell over the next five quarters, not counting China.
• Huang also said Nvidia was making inroads in quantum computing, unveiling a new interconnect technology called NVQLink. It’s a high-speed interconnect linking quantum processors to GPUs and CPUs for error correction. Huang said 17 quantum computing companies have pledged to support it.
• Separately, Nvidia announced a $1 billion stake in Nokia, about 2.9% and named Nokia a partner for commercial-grade AI networking. It will enable Nokia and other telecommunications firms to roll out AI-native 5G-Advanced and 6G networks through Nvidia’s platform.
• Huang also announced a new deal with Uber Technologies and Stellantis in which the companies will build a fleet of 100,000 autonomous robo-taxis powered by Nvidia technology. They’re scheduled to hit the road in 2027.

What’s Next: Huang’s outlook puts Qualcomm’s entry into the AI chip market into perspective. The Nvidia conference continues today, but Huang is likely thinking about Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi on Thursday, when potential sales of U.S.-made AI chips to China is expected to be on the agenda.

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