Plus US oil & gas output hits new highs...

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Power Up

Power Up

 

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

 

By Gavin Maguire, ROI Energy Transition Columnist

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more energy news, click here. Please send any feedback to powerup@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Hello Power Up readers,

Ron's off schmoozing at the ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi this week, so I'm on deck for Power Up. If you are also attending ADIPEC, please be sure to connect with Ron and say hello. 

From an OPEC+ pause to output hikes to record U.S. oil and gas production to Exxon and Chevron beating profit estimates to the delicate trade truce between the U.S. and China, there's lots going on throughout the energy sector, so let's dig in.

First up, OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to a small output rise in December and a freeze on output rises for the first quarter of 2025, amid fears of a global glut. Here's the latest news on that from the OPEC team, while fellow ROI columnist Clyde Russell - who's been warning about the surplus risk all year - digs into the enduring dilemma for OPEC members as the supply pause risks lifting prices and denting demand from cost-sensitive buyers. 

As if to underscore the oversupply risk, U.S. oil and gas output scaled record levels in August, according to the latest EIA data, despite concerns that both markets are heading for surpluses. With this hefty supply base and friendlier terms with China in mind, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters on Friday that there is a "lot of room for a win-win there."

Outside the oil and gas space, the U.S. nuclear industry is back in focus after U.S. President Trump's push for a speedy nuclear renaissance has raised safety concerns, as this smart Reuters analysis lays out.

Elsewhere, China's mammoth EV sector is making fresh waves, which I dig into further below.

Here are a few other key headlines:

  • Big Oil gets boost from escalating economic war on Russia ROI columnist Ron Bousso explains how top Western oil companies are enjoying a windfall from the expanding attacks on Russia's oil industry – both literal and economic – that have boosted global refining profit margins and mitigated concerns over a looming supply glut.
  • Morgan Stanley lifts H1 2026 Brent forecast on OPEC+ pause Morgan Stanley on Monday raised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.5, citing the decision by OPEC+ to pause quota hikes in the first quarter of next year and recent U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian oil assets.
  • US natural gas futures hit 6-month high on LNG export surge U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% on Friday to a six-month high, on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, as output dropped and forecasters expected more demand over the next two weeks than they did previously. (Check out a recent column of mine on the household-LNG exporter collision course here.) 
  • Taiwan bucks Asia's clean power drive with record gas burn Taiwan's utilities have cranked natural gas-fired electricity generation to new highs this year, bucking regional and global trends toward increased clean energy within power mixes. Just over 87% of Taiwan's electricity supply was produced by fossil fuels in the first eight months of this year, which compares to Asia's average of around 62% and the global average of 57%. Check out my recent column for more.
  • Russia-backed sanctioned Indian refiner boosts crude runs Russia-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy has ramped up crude processing at its Vadinar refinery to 90% to 93% of capacity, two sources familiar with the matter said, after European Union sanctions curtailed operations earlier this year. As India is the top buyer of Russian crude, the run rates of its refineries are of key interest to global oil traders.  
  • Exxon looks to lift force majeure at Mozambique LNG project Exxon Mobil is looking at lifting force majeure on a $30 billion liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique as security conditions in the country improve, CEO Darren Woods told investors on Friday during an earnings call.

We love to get your thoughts and comments, so don’t hesitate to contact Ron at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or me at gavin.maguire@reuters.com, or follow us on LinkedIn.

 
 

Top energy headlines

  • QatarEnergy, Exxon executives warn of Europe exit over climate law
  • Oil prices steady despite OPEC+ plans to pause output increases
  • US becomes first country to export 10 million tonnes of LNG in single month
  • BP to sell stakes in US onshore pipeline assets for $1.5 billion
  • Europe's energy executives caution against oil supply glut next year 
 
 

China's widening EV impact

China's mammoth electric vehicle industry is not just impacting the country's auto sector, but also national fuel sales patterns.

Rapidly-expanding charging infrastructure has encouraged tens of millions of Chinese to hit the road for the Golden Week holidays in their EVs this year, which in turn has reversed the usual boom in gasoline sales at this time of year.  

In fact, China's gasoline demand is estimated to have fallen 9% in October on the year to 12.5 million tons, with average daily use roughly flat with September, according to Chinese consultancy Sublime China Information (SCI).

The sagging holiday demand is symptomatic of the broader decline in Chinese fuel use stemming from wider EV adoption, heralding the approaching end of its decades-long role as the main driving force of new global oil demand.

Gasoline consumption in the world's biggest importer of crude peaked in 2023 and the research unit of state oil company Sinopec expects demand to fall more than 4% this year from 2024.

During the first nine months of the year, EVs and hybrids made up almost half of all new car sales.

A fifth of the 63.5 million car trips during the eight-day holiday break were in electric or hybrid vehicles, the transport ministry says.

Daily use of electricity by charging stations, a proxy for EV use, rose 45.73% during Golden Week this year, versus 2024.

China's EV impact also extends overseas, with exports of Chinese EVs scaling record highs in almost every continent so far this year. 

Belgium has been the top overall market for Chinese EV exports so far in 2025, followed by the United Kingdom, Australia, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates.

However, the fastest-growing region for Chinese EV imports so far in 2025 has been Africa, which has posted a 184% jump in imports compared to 2024, to more than $1 billion in sales. 

The wide span in China's EV export reach shows how well connected the sector is around the world, despite being a relatively new participant in the global car export arena. 

That said, China's policymakers have opted to cut subsidies and state support for the bloated EV sector in its upcoming five-year plan, which sets the industrial agenda from 2026 to 2030.

Lower subsidies are expected to trigger a much needed downsizing throughout the EV space in China, and over time lead to lower EV exports from the country. Check out my recent column for more details on the scale and span of China's EV exports so far this decade.
Read the full column below:

Read the full column
 

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