Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated through December 2.
All major reserve-currency issuing central banks held their policy rates steady over the past month: the Fed at 3.88%, the ECB at 2%, the PBoC at 3%, the BoJ at 0.5%, the BoE at 4%, the Bank of Canada at 2.25%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia at 3.6%. With our algorithm reclassifying the UK and Australia from easing to neutral, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rises from -7.12/10 to -6.22/10: still significant global easing.
All eyes are now on the Fed. The FOMC will have what is shaping up to be a contentious meeting on December 9-10, with hawks and doves almost equally balanced. Still, markets are assigning a roughly 85% probability to a 25bp rate cut.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century. Sincerely,
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