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In recent weeks, Democrats have had a strange feeling — hope.
Spurred by Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherill’s blowout victories in gubernatorial elections, Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York City, and Aftyn Behn’s large overperformance in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District (not to mention winning two statewide elections in Georgia), pundits have been pointing out that you don’t need to be high on hopium to believe Dems could retake the Senate in 2026.
It’s not likely … but we’re saying there’s a chance. It requires Dems holding every seat they currently have, flipping ones in North Carolina and Maine, and also flipping two out of Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska.
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Despite what Republicans will tell you, in a blue year, Democratically-held seats in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia will not be competitive. Nor will Republican- held ones in South Carolina, Montana, and probably Kansas too.
With that being said, here’s an overview of the races that are up for grabs the calendar turns.
Likely Dem holds
Georgia
Conventional wisdom says Jon Ossoff is the most vulnerable Democratic senator running for reelection, especially since Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is retiring in Michigan. But Ossoff is off to a really strong start.
Ossoff raised over $54 million for his reelection by the end of the third quarter and had over $21 million on hand. He’s relentlessly attacked the Trump administration on tariffs, cost of living, and the ACA subsidies expiring — all top voter concerns in Georgia.
