A glass of wine with friends can brighten the grey days of January. But in this gloomy month—and others—fewer people are indulging. It’s not simply that they are passing on wine; they seem to be passing on friends.

And state meddling is back. Politicians around the world have redrawn the map for global business, setting out where multinationals can operate. But, typically, Donald Trump is taking things further—and his interventions are muddled and outdated. America’s gunboat capitalism will bring neither prosperity nor security.