Making sense of the forces driving global markets

By Jamie McGeever, Reuters Open Interest Markets Columnist 

The dollar snapped higher and Wall Street wobbled on Wednesday - bit not before the S&P 500 broke above 7000 points for the first time - after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold and flagged rising inflation risks. 

More on that below. In my column today I look at who the most likely candidates are to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets as 'Sell America' narrative gathers momentum. Countries with big nominal holdings, or countries with outsized exposure to U.S. markets?  

I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com. You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social. 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

* Hawkish veer to Fed's steer

"An absolute snoozefest." That's how TS Lombard's Dario Perkins summed up today's Fed meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after, as the central bank kept rates on hold as expected. The steer was slightly hawkish - inflation remains elevated and the job market looks a bit sturdier - but there was little market reaction.

Traders still expect another quarter point cut by July, but aren't fully pricing in another one after that. This fits with Powell's view that policy is probably at the higher end of the neutral range. Chances of the next move being a hike? No one's "base case", Powell says. 

* U.S. reaffirms 'strong dollar' policy

U.S. President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others have weighed in on the dollar's travails, and investors are nervous the selloff snowballs into a rout. Policymakers seeing their currencies super charge in value will be too.

The dollar got some respite on Wednesday, but the selling pressure is likely to return. It is still over-valued on a long-term, fundamental basis, although by how much is open to question. The last 24-48 hours have seen huge swings in FX volatility - investors should expect more of that too.

* 3 out of 4 ain't bad

U.S. tech results are rolling in, and so far, it's looking good - investors cheered Meta, Tesla and IBM, but not Microsoft. Belief in the economic transformative power of AI is broadly intact. But there are a few chinks of shade amid the blinding light.

First, the downside of a productivity boom - job losses. Amazon and UPS have announced huge layoffs, others will likely follow. Second, big tech has lagged in recent months, ceding market leadership to other sectors. Many leading tech stocks remain well off their all-time highs - a sign of fatigue, or room to play catch up?

If the "Sell America" trade heats up, who is most likely to stoke the flames? 

The world's exposure to U.S. assets is approaching $69 trillion, or $27 trillion net of Americans' foreign holdings, so there's no shortage of potential sellers should investors decide to "de-risk" from the United States.

The tumultuous first few weeks of the year provide a lengthening list of reasons why they might want to trim that record net "long" position.