If Benjamin Franklin were around today, he’d probably be battling self-worth issues, as the value of the bills with his face on them plummets. The dollar has sunk 2% against a basket of foreign currencies since the start of 2026 and almost 11% in the past year in a sign that global investors are growing bearish on Uncle Sam.

Dollar dampeners

Earlier this week, the greenback took its biggest one-day plunge since “Liberation Day” tariffs rattled markets in April, when President Trump—who previously spoke in favor of a weaker dollar—said he’s not concerned with the currency’s slide.

While it briefly rebounded the next day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was pursuing a strong dollar, investors have longer-term dollar disquiet:

• Geopolitical tensions, like Trump’s recent spat with European allies over his Greenland annexation push, are causing sheepishness about America’s future role in global finance.
• There are also worries that the Fed’s lowering of interest rates could fuel inflation, and that the US government debt is unsustainable.

And in a sign that the dollar might be losing its status as a popular hedge in times of distress, its value is falling at the same time that fellow safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc surge.

Who gets stronger from a weaker dollar?

A dip in the dollar can help US producers export more, since their goods become cheaper for foreign buyers. It could also boost the bottom line of American multinationals with vast overseas operations—like McDonald’s—as it would inflate revenues in dollar terms, while expenses (like the salaries of stateside executives) remain stable.

On the flip side, a weak dollar makes imports—say, Italian pasta or Taiwanese computer chips—more expensive. It could push up US Treasury bond yields, making it pricier for the government and Americans to borrow money.

Looking ahead: While some analysts caution that the dollar might still be far from rock bottom, others argue against dollar doomerism, citing America’s enduring dominance in global markets.—SK

Senate Dems reach deal with White House, possibly averting full govt shutdown. Yesterday evening, Democrats reached a deal with Senate Republicans and the White House to pass five spending bills that would fund most of the government for the rest of the fiscal year, and to pass a stopgap measure that would fund the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks while lawmakers continued negotiating reforms for ICE. The current continuing resolution, which is keeping the federal government’s lights on, expires at the end of today. The Senate is expected to vote on the deal after it reconvenes at 11am ET. The House of Representatives, however, is on a district work week, and will likely not vote until Monday at the earliest. Last night, House Speaker Mike Johnson said, “We may inevitably be in a short shutdown situation.” In a social media post, President Trump endorsed the deal.—HVL

Trump said he would announce his Fed Chair nominee this morning. Conclave, but for finance nerds, is almost at an end. At the premiere of Melania last night, President Trump said he would name his pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this morning. On the red black carpet beside Melania, the president hinted that his selection was “somebody that is very respected, somebody that’s known to everybody in the financial world.” The Wall Street Journal reported that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, long considered to be on Trump’s short list, met with him yesterday. As of midnight, Warsh was the 95% favorite on Polymarket. In a very distant second was Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive, at 3%.—HVL

Apple revenues soar on “staggering” iPhone demand. The tech giant trounced Wall Street’s earnings expectations yesterday, reporting 16% revenue growth to about $144 billion for its fiscal Q1, thanks to beaucoup demand for its signature smartphone, CEO Tim Cook said. The executive added that there are now 2.5 billion Apple devices in use, or about one for every three people on Earth. Apple said it had especially strong sales in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, driven by the iPhone 17. Still, the company’s stock is down about 5% this year as investors mull its AI spending and increased smartphone competition.—AE

Two AI giants diverged in a red Nasdaq: This week, Meta and Microsoft reported broadly similar quarterly earnings that elicited opposite investor reactions, with shares of Meta climbing 10% yesterday and Microsoft plunging 10%—a nearly six-year record drop that erased $350+ billion in value.

Similarities: In their most recent quarters, both companies beat revenue expectations, showed signs that they’re beginning to monetize AI, and posted higher-than-anticipated capital expenditures driven by spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure.

Differences: Meta’s AI capital expenditure—which it plans to double this year—appeared more justifiable than Microsoft’s:

• Meta enjoyed 24% year over year revenue growth, driven by its rock-solid ad business, while Microsoft recorded 17% growth.
• Microsoft’s Azure business, part of its revenue-driving cloud services, dipped slightly quarter to quarter, from 40% growth to 39% growth, possibly spooking investors.
• Crucially, Microsoft relies on OpenAI’s success in a way Meta doesn’t—the ChatGPT maker accounts for nearly half of Microsoft’s contracted future revenue, its earnings showed.

Expert POV: “Concerns about OpenAI’s ability to meet funding commitments” probably contributed to Microsoft’s stock tumble, but the reaction is “overblown,” Evercore ISI analysts said, per CNBC.

Zoom out: Amid fears of a potential AI bubble, Big Tech’s surging capital expenditure investments can easily make investors skittish. The Nasdaq fell yesterday as Microsoft’s nosedive dragged on the broader tech sector.—ML

Not since you rented out your hometown Regal for a private showing of Justin Bieber: Never Say Never has a documentary been on track to lose this much. Melania, a documentary about First Lady Melania Trump, opens this weekend and is expected to earn only $3 million—a far cry from the $75 million that Amazon has spent to buy the film and promote it.

The film, set to release in 1,500 theaters, gives a behind-the-scenes look at Melania in the lead-up to President Trump’s second inauguration. It’s directed by Rush Hour director Brett Ratner, who was pushed out of Hollywood in 2017 over multiple sexual harassment and assault allegations, which he has denied:

• Amazon paid $40 million for the rights to the film following the 2024 election, an eyebrow-raising amount for a documentary.
• The company committed another $35 million to promote the movie with expensive NFL playoff ads and branded popcorn buckets. There was even an ad on the Las Vegas Sphere.

Zoom out: Apple CEO Tim Cook was criticized for attending a private screening of the film at the White House last week, the same day ICE agents shot and killed Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. Skeptics have accused Amazon of attempting to curry favor with the White House, given the film’s outsized budget. Amazon has said that the only reason it licensed the film is because it thinks customers will love it.—MM

Would you drop eight figures for a chance to create the next “Puppy Monkey Baby”? That’s the wager many companies are making this year, as the cost of a 30-second Super Bowl LX ad is as high as $10 million, NBC said.

• The average price is $8 million—about the same as last year.
• Nearly 40% of advertisers for this year’s game did not advertise last year. Among the newbies is Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk.

Why spend so much on a single commercial? In this era of media fragmentation, the Super Bowl remains one of a dwindling number of live TV events with a reliably huge, captive audience. MrBeast could never.—AE

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