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If recent history tells us anything, it’s that we should take matters very seriously when reports emerge of President Donald Trump being presented with “options” as his nation’s military hardware moves to waters within striking distance of an adversary.
But Iran is not Venezuela. It is larger, with greater offensive capabilities and a regime that has entrenched itself in every aspect of the country for 47 years.
Moreover, any assault on Iran holds additional risks due to its status as a “threshold nation” − that is, one that has the technology, expertise and infrastructure to produce nuclear weapons but has not, to date, crossed that line.
Farah N. Jan, an expert on nuclear proliferation, argues that any U.S. military action now would send a worrying message to other nations with nuclear ambitions: that is, she writes, “security is only truly achieved through the possession of nuclear weapons – and not by negotiating them away or halting development before completion.”
An Iran destabilized through U.S. strikes would pose other risks, too, according to Jan, through the “loss of centralized command over nuclear material and scientists, incentives for factions to monetize or export expertise, and acceleration logic − actors racing to secure deterrence before collapse.”
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