Times Square’s digital screens, the Hollywood sign over Los Angeles, the 9,000-square-foot Birmingham SkySign in Birmingham, Ala. None of them have anything on these glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections:
President Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out this week. It showed Trump again under 40% job approval rating and his voting coalition fraying. Independents gave him just a 30% approval. Meantime, just 38% of Latinos approved, with 70% saying ICE has gone “too far” and more believing Trump’s focus should be on lowering prices than anything else.
The GOP continues to lose special elections. Last week, it was for a Texas state Senate seat in an area Trump won by 17 points, but the Democrat won in this race, over a Trump-endorsed Republican candidate, by 14 points. It’s yet another in a string of Democratic double-digit electoral overperformances in the past year.
Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up, a record pace. And right now, it’s more Republicans — 30 to 21. Lots of factors are going into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington, but which party has more officeholders who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.
Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test. On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge on which party people say they’d rather have controlling Congress. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question. But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years, and a year ago, Republicans were leading on the congressional ballot, showing how things have moved.
At this point, none of these signs line up well for the party in power.
Will ‘Abolish ICE' sway voters? The strategy has the Democratic Party split. The killings of Alex Pretti and Renee Macklin Good in Minneapolis have renewed a long-running debate among Democrats over how best to address immigration enforcement, and whether advocating for "abolishing ICE" fits into a winning political playbook.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s landmark case: His mistaken deportation was thought to be unique.As NPR’s Ximena Bustillo reports, Abrego Garcia went from working in Maryland one week, to getting whisked off to a notorious prison in El Salvador the next —– because of a mistake that a government lawyer admitted in court. Immigration lawyers say the case highlights the pitfalls with the speed and scale of the Trump administration’s goal of mass deportations.
SCOTUS on new Calif. map: The Supreme Court is allowing California to use its new congressional map for this year's midterm election, clearing the way for the state's gerrymandered districts as Democrats and Republicans continue their fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The state’s map was a Democratic counter to Texas' new GOP-friendly map, which President Trump pushed for to help Republicans hold on to their narrow majority in the House.
NPR exclusive: Justice Correspondent Carrie Johnson reports on a federal judge who said he retired to speak out about threats to the rule of law. Newly released court orders suggest his exit coincided with a misconduct inquiry that ended when he stepped down. Read more.
NPR has been digging through the more than 3 million pages, plus videos and images the DOJ released last week -- part of the files tied to the death and criminal investigation of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. In announcing the release last Friday, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche described it as the last batch of files. He has since said new charges for anyone are unlikely.
As NPR has reported, the files raise more questions than they answer; it’s been nearly impossible to tell a full story due to lack of organization and lack of context.
NPR's review has found numerous issues with redactions, including publicly identifying victims of sexual abuse. The files do fill in some pictures about his money and how he used it, and show his connections were vast and personal.
Last week, this space featured a shot of Mediocre Bunny, the non-Spanish speaker learning Bad Bunny songs. This week, the newsletter wraps up on another nod to Sunday’s big game with super enthusiastic Patriots fans looking to win their seventh Lombardi trophy in the Super Bowl showdown tomorrow against the Seattle Seahawks.
And as NPR’s Tovia Smith reports, many Pats fans are hoping to "finally" end what they call their "long" and "agonizing" six years of losing. But rival fans gripe that “Title Town” has become “Entitled Town.”
To be clear: Your newsletter writer does not have a dog in this particular fight and is instead game for some deep thrill-of-victory-agony-of-defeat superfan drama. (Plus the ads and Bad Bunny’s halftime show.) Follow NPR for more on the big game this weekend.
