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In honor of the late, great Scott Adams, we took notes on this timeless whiteboard session from seven years ago on how to spot cognitive dissonance. In such a heated political climate where persuasion often overshadows fact, being able to spot cognitive dissonance in others (and yourself) is key to being on the right side of history. He may no longer be with us, but his lasting wisdom makes it feel like we'll be able to "Just Ask Scott" forever
Ido Portal spent 2 hours walking crowded Hong Kong streets trying not to touch anyone as his training. No gym, no weights, just pure awareness of movement. This is what happens when you stop thinking of fitness as linear progress and start treating your body like something that needs to be explored, not optimized. Portal challenges everything you thought you knew about training and this is just on crazy example
Andre Agassi hated tennis. Like genuinely despised it with every part of his soul. And he still became number one in the world. This episode breaks down how his father’s obsession became his prison, how he fell all the way to smoking meth and losing everything, and how he clawed his way back to actually win on his own terms. One of the best comeback stories you’ll ever read about
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“Cognitive dissonance is when somebody goes from relatively rational thinking — we humans don’t get there very well — to flat out scrambled” – Scott Adams
If you’re the one experiencing it, you can’t tell
If you’re trying to identify it, you also can’t tell because it actually might be you
How to Spot Cognitive Dissonance?
Good point is made
Example: Kanye West says we should free our thinking (note: this is from seven years ago)
Rationale: It’s a reasonable thing to say that should be hard to argue with
Collapse to one variable
Example: Kanye West is just crazy or he is just trying to sell records
Rationale: They are trying to discredit the person to discredit the point
His father would get into road rage incidents, once whipped an axe into another driver’s headlights and tail lights sending glass everywhere
Another time he pointed a handgun at a driver with the gun level with young Andre’s nose, Andre just stared straight ahead not moving
“Such moments and many more come to mind whenever I think about telling my father that I don’t want to play tennis. Besides loving my father and wanting to please him, I don’t want to upset him. I don’t dare.” - Agassi
At 8 years old when he loses even one set in a meaningless tournament, his reaction is “my father is going to kill me”
He feels empty even though he’s number one, and realizes “a win doesn’t feel as good as a loss feels bad, and the good feeling doesn’t last as long as the bad, not even close”
The wrong goals the whole time, he never really wanted to be number one, that was what other people wanted for him
Think about the perception vs reality: world famous tennis player, former number 1, engaged to a supermodel, but really he hates what he does, hates himself, doesn’t want to marry her, and he’s smoking crystal meth
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The real bottleneck isn't energy cost (only 10-15% of data center costs), it's availability of energy
Outside China, electricity output is basically flat, but chip output is growing exponentially. So where are companies gonna get the power to turn all these chips on?
Permits are the actual constraint on Earth: "I think it's pretty hard to cover Nevada in solar panels. You have to get permits. Try getting the permits for that. See what happens… It's harder to scale on the ground than it is to scale in space." - Elon
Solar tariffs in the US are several hundred percent, which is nuts
AI Is Going To Space
"In 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space."
Solar panels in space are 5x more effective (no day/night, clouds, or atmosphere), no batteries needed, and the atmosphere alone causes 30% energy loss on ground
Space solar ends up being 10x cheaper than ground when you factor in no batteries
In 5 years, Elon predicts SpaceX will launch and operate more AI in space every year than the cumulative total on Earth
If this comes true, SpaceX will launch more AI than everything on Earth combined and become a hyper-hyperscaler
We Won't Be In Charge, But We Can Set The Values
Maybe in 5-6 years AI will exceed the sum of all human intelligence, eventually humans will be less than 1% of all intelligence
It's hard to imagine humans will be in charge of AI when we have maybe 1% of the combined intelligence
But we can make sure AI has values that cause intelligence to be propagated into the universe
The central lesson of 2001 Space Odyssey is don't make AI lie
Making AI politically correct (programming it to say things it doesn't believe) can make it go insane
Reality is the best verifier for reinforcement learning: when you design a technology and test it against physics, does it work? That's one thing you can't fool
The Hand Is Harder Than Everything Else
There are only three hard things for humanoid robots: real-world intelligence, the hand, and scale manufacturing
The hand is more difficult from an electromechanical standpoint than everything else combined
China's Industrial Capacity Is 3x The US
This year China will exceed 3x US electricity output
Electricity is a good proxy for real economy and industrial capacity
For some materials like gallium (goes into solar cells), China does 98% of refining
China has 4x the US population and frankly the average work ethic in China is higher than in the US
"Starship is the most complicated machine ever made by humans, by a long shot." - Elon
AI And Robots Or Bankruptcy
We are 1000% going to go bankrupt as a country without AI and robots
“If any goal that you achieved, whatever it is, taking a drug, eating a food, getting a partner or whatnot, if that was enough for you, then you wouldn’t keep living.” – Dr. Read Montague
Your system needs to keep tracking and always have another place to go
This is why it’s in every mobile creature’s brain on the planet. The system has to keep pushing you forward or you die
Social Media and Short Form Video Might Be Training Your ADHD Muscle. If you repeatedly engage in rapid turnover of stimuli (TikTok, YouTube shorts), those circuits might get stronger
The circuits that let you move from node to node toward a goal (integrating expectations, rewards, failures) might get weaker
You could be building your explorer mode at the expense of your exploitation mode
One Rare Thing About Social Media: it’s exceedingly rare that a short clip provides information that really sticks with you and you reflect on later
With books, it’s exceedingly rare that you DON’T have 5 or 10 things underlined per chapter that you go back to
The difference is effort and time. Reading a book takes a deliberative set of intentional actions. Scrolling takes zero effort
SSRI Mechanism You Probably Didn’t Know About: SSRIs block serotonin reuptake, which increases serotonin overall. But a lot of that serotonin gets pushed into the dopamine terminals
Now you’ve got “negative juice” sitting in terminals that usually release “positive juice”
When those neurons fire for positive things, they’re releasing serotonin instead, which codes as negative
This might make you negatively condition on things you should actually pursue
The Most Healthy Version of Pursuing Goals? Doing it without regard to what anybody else is doing
You want to be the person who says “this is the life I live, these are my standards, I’m quiet with them, I’m going to do this thing and it doesn’t matter what anybody else thinks”
