Good morning, everyone.

If you haven’t heard yet, mark Oct. 19 on your calendars.

On Thursday evening, in a 13-minute televised speech, Premier Danielle Smith made her case as to why Alberta’s deteriorating financial situation is unsustainable and why her “short-term plan” is to send the province to the polls.

No, she isn’t calling an early election. Smith is going to hold a referendum and allow Albertans to weigh in on what has quickly become the primary focus of her agenda: immigration and greater Alberta autonomy.

Pointing the finger at Ottawa is nothing new, but the Premier has decided in this case, one week away from a budget that will likely show a massive deficit, it is the number of people moving to the province who are the problem.

“The fact is, Alberta taxpayers can no longer be asked to continue to subsidize the entire country through equalization and federal transfers, permit the federal government to flood our borders with new arrivals, and then give free access to our most-generous-in-the-country social programs to anyone who moves here,” she said.

While Alberta and Ottawa have grown closer in recent months since an environmental and pipeline pact was signed last fall between Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney, the relationship is still not exactly cozy.

Among the questions, the referendum will ask about the possibility of negotiating with like-minded provinces on amendments to the Constitution. Albertans will be asked about their opinions on abolishing the federal Senate, permitting provincial governments to take control over appointing members of the judiciary and allowing provinces to opt out of federal programs without losing the funding tied to them.

But none of what the Premier announced Thursday about newcomers should come as a surprise given Smith’s town-hall tour across the province last summer, during which immigration featured prominently.

That exercise informed the nine questions that will appear in the October referendum, Smith said.

In her speech Thursday, she described her immigration proposals as “a significant departure from the status quo” requiring consent from a majority of Albertans.

One question asks if voters support mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and those with an “Alberta-approved immigration status” should be eligible for provincially funded programs, including health and education.

It’s not clear how an “Alberta-approved immigration status” will be defined.

Another question asks if residents support charging “a reasonable fee or premium” for health care and education to people with non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta.

And while as recently as two years ago, Smith herself was pushing for more people to move to Alberta, touting a goal of 10 million residents by 2050, the tide has turned as oil prices have fallen.

In some of their rallies, Alberta’s separatist leaders, hoping for their own independence referendum this fall, describe immigration as an effort to replace “old stock” white Canadians. The separatist movement, which Smith has refused to outright denounce, wields some influence over a portion of her United Conservative Party base.

Just this week, the executive director of the premier’s office, Bruce McAllister, pointed to a social media infographic about immigration numbers to weigh in on population growth.

“Why import from nations with failed systems when our Judeo-Christian heritage and principles have worked so well here? It almost feels like these elites are ashamed of what built this great country,” McAllister said on X.

Smith’s chief of staff, Rob Anderson, also reposted the infographic, saying: “This absolute insanity needs to stop. It will.”

While Alberta’s population has grown significantly in recent years, hitting five million last year, net migration to the province has been falling. The province absorbed 37,625 migrants in the first three quarters of 2025, down 73 per cent compared with the 140,490 people who came to Alberta in the same timeframe in 2024.

And just 197 international migrants arrived in the third quarter of 2025, a drop of 99 per cent compared with 32,046 in the same quarter in 2024.

If the reaction of some on social media this week to the province releasing the most popular baby names of 2025 is any indication, the conversation ahead of the October referendum could get ugly.

As some right-leaning outlets were quick to point out, if you add up all the variations of the spelling of Muhammad, it appeared to be the most popular boy’s name in Alberta last year over Noah. (Nobody seems to have added up all the variations of the name Mary, which may have made it the most popular girl’s name over Olivia.)

This is the weekly Alberta newsletter written by Alberta Bureau Chief Mark Iype. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.