What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets

Tuesday saw software stocks stage something of a rally, weirdly driven by the thing that's beaten them down for the past month: a sweep of new plug-ins from AI lab Anthropic.

This time around, the market focused more on the partnerships between some of these companies and Anthropic, rather than the existential threat AI could pose.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why AI isn't the only thing driving the global economy.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • Check out the key takeaways from President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday, delivered against a backdrop of rising Iran tensions and voter frustration with the cost of living.
  • AI lab Anthropic on Tuesday unveiled 10 new ways for business customers to plug in its technology, weeks after other releases sparked an aggressive selloff in traditional software company shares.
  • Consumers expecting a drop in prices after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the White House's emergency tariffs are likely to be disappointed.
  • Foreign appetite for U.S. assets is under renewed scrutiny, even as capital inflows remain at record highs. ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever helps make sense of this.
  • Big Tech’s race to dominate AI may soon hit a nasty road bump as U.S. electricity grids struggle to keep pace with the big-spending hyperscalers, writes ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
 

Another day, another AI mood swing

Even though many software stocks caught a break yesterday, others affected by Anthropic's new tools were less fortunate. HR software firm Workday fell 10% overnight, with a downbeat revenue forecast aggravated by the fact that HR tasks were listed among the targets of Anthropic's new gizmo.

While the broader rebound may not address what the viral scare stories suggest will be a wipeout of white collar workers, it does suggest that perhaps many of these companies may survive and thrive with AI after all.

At the very least, it suggests a rethink about the extent of the selloff in many sectors in recent months, and maybe nodded a little to today's big event - Nvidia's results.

The world's most valuable company reports after the bell, and for all the ifs and buts about AI, there's no doubt about the torrent of capex earmarked for chips, computing hardware, bricks-and-mortar data centers and the energy needed to drive it.

The chip giant is expected to forecast a 64% jump in first-quarter revenue to about $72 billion dollars. But, as ever, the bar to impress is rising all the time, and Nvidia is facing increasing competition from the likes of Alphabet and AMD.

Chinese demand may also be in focus given the recent ebb and flow of government restrictions on the sale of its top chips there.

Even though Nvidia shares are only up 2% for the year so far, options markets are braced for a post-earnings swing of plus/minus 5%. The scale of the firm these days means that's a swing of about $230 billion in market cap either way.

After the S&P 500's 0.77% jump on Tuesday, futures were up ahead of today's bell. Elsewhere, Asia's stocks motored higher on Wednesday amid a growing focus on what AI capex is doing for companies aiding the infrastructure buildout.

South Korea's Kospi benchmark, which has risen a staggering 45% already this year, rose 2%, while Japan's Nikkei gained 2.2%.

That Japanese stock move was aided by another fall in the yen to its lowest in two weeks after news that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's nominees to two Bank of Japan board positions were seen as 'reflationists' - something of a mirror of the Fed story stateside, perhaps.

Meantime, the yuan strengthened further to near three-year highs against the dollar as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz became the latest European leader to visit China this year. The offshore yuan has now risen 3% over the past month.

There were few market takeaways from President Trump's broad-brush State of the Union speech late Tuesday, but the AI theme made its way in as Trump told Big Tech companies they must build their own power plants for their data centers. Trump is clearly sensitive to the pressure on household electricity prices from the huge additional demand on the grid.

Trump also promised $1,000 contributions next year to Americans not covered by 401k retirement accounts - money likely to find its way directly to the stock market.

And now onto today's column.

 

Maybe the global economy isn't all about AI

Whether it leads to doom-laden depression or a productivity nirvana, the artificial intelligence juggernaut now dominates macroeconomic thinking as well as stock market bets. But if you unpick the details of impressive global industrial growth, the rest of the economy still packs a punch and AI is only part of the story.

The stock market is clearly obsessed with AI - and now increasingly focused on losers as well as the mega-cap winners.

Nvidia, the world's most valuable firm and easily the big winner from the AI boom to date, reports on Wednesday and offers a reality check on blistering capital expenditure and chip demand.

The flipside on Monday was IBM's 13% share price plunge - the biggest one-day drop in 26 years for a grand old name in computing as AI lab Anthropic rolled out a new coding tool.