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The House always wins. The same is not true for the Frat House. Founders of prediction markets—or gambling sites that have recently added sports gambling to the mix—know how to place a smart bet. That’s why they’re headed to college. While these sites are susceptible to insider trading and market manipulation, neither of those strategies was required for Kalshi and Polymarket to identify a valuable target market. There was already a gambling scourge spreading across college campuses, particularly among males who have adopted sports betting as a normal part of university life. Some non-profits say that as many as 10% of college students could be classified as pathological gamblers. And those numbers were added up before prediction markets took off. So, given the profits over ethics vibe of our current classless cultural moment, it would be safe to bet that prediction markets are coming to a fraternity near you. WSJ (Gift Article): The Prediction Market Bets Driving a Campus Frenzy. “Both companies have begun splashing cash on campuses. Polymarket has offered to pay fraternities, in exchange for signing up users, money that can be spent on throwing ‘epic parties’—one frat raised $30,510 over a two-week period. Both platforms have been paying student influencers to promote them as ways to raise fun money, enlisting student athletes as brand representatives and supporting student clubs ... Polymarket also reached out to fraternities and social clubs across the University of California, Berkeley, last fall, according to students there, offering company-branded beer pong cups and up to $1,000 for parties.” The targeting of youth, many of whom are too young to participate in regular gambling, isn’t stopping orgs like AP, Google, CNN, and the NHL (and the platform I’m sending this newsletter out on) from partnering with the prediction markets, because of a distorted belief that they provide some kind of wisdom of the crowds version of truth. But throwing the fuel of legalized gambling on the fire already engulfing college campuses is a bad bet. Especially if it pays off.
+ Charlie Warzel in The Atlantic (Gift Article): A Technology for a Low-Trust Society. “This is the central lie of prediction markets: They claim to get us closer to the truth but, in the end, they make us less certain about the world. But this erosion of trust is a feature, not a bug, for these platforms. A world where people are suspicious of every motive is a world where the cold logic of gambling feels more rational. A zero-trust society is one where the prediction markets’ dubious ‘wisdom of crowds’ marketing seems extra appealing. In this way, prediction markets are a system that justifies its own existence—a well-oiled machine chipping away at societal trust while offering a convenient solution to its own problem.”
+ Think I’m making Kalshi and Polymarket seem too hateable? Well, consider this: They hate each other, too.
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The Moral of the Story
America needs group therapy. In a 25-country survey by Pew, Americans were especially likely to view fellow citizens as morally bad. “In nearly all countries surveyed, more people say that others in their country have somewhat or very good morals than say their compatriots display somewhat or very bad levels of morality. The United States is the only place we surveyed where more adults (ages 18 and older) describe the morality and ethics of others living in the country as bad (53%) than as good (47%).” We don’t just disagree. We dislike our fellow Americans and view each other as bad people. This divisiveness, sadly, is a dream scenario for those with anti-democratic leanings (which is one reason why they spend so much time spewing hate and dividing us).
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The Fog of Foggy Bottom
“We are aware that stuff is happening that we should care about, but the fog of bullshit surrounding this stuff is so thick that we can barely make out its shape or heft. Less than six weeks have passed since Alex Pretti was shot dead by C.B.P. agents in Minneapolis, and yet that, too, already feels like yesterday’s problem.” In The New Yorker, Jay Caspian Kang tries to explain how it sort of makes sense that we could have A No-Explanation War.
+ “Hegseth tries so hard—too hard—to project a tough-guy persona, as if a lot of unresolved issues, a lot of brokenness, are playing themselves out in his life. He seems to be trying to prove a great deal, to himself and to others. There’s a certain poignancy in that. But there’s a danger in that, too, when the person in question happens to be the secretary of defense.” The Atlantic(Gift Article): Pete Hegseth’s Troubled Soul.
+ There’s no doubt that America’s air power has been a dominant force. But there’s something sick about talking about it the way Hegseth does. Especially because we know that war kills innocent victims, not just evil regime members. Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base.
+ Trump Demands Iran Surrender as War Upends Global Markets. That may be hard for the surviving members of the regime to do, since it’s essentially signing a death certificate. But they are under extreme pressure, and they don’t have many friends left. Reuters: Iran spent years fostering proxies in Iraq. Now, many aren’t eager to join the war. The weakness Iran showed during the 12-day war was a strong negative signal to their proxies.
+ Meanwhile, maybe someone can turn this into a really exciting TV show or internet meme and get it in front of Trump. WaPo(Gift Article): Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say. Enemy’s gonna enemy.
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Weekend Whats
What to Rock: It turns out that the best way to get an especially great performance out of a musician is to put them on a stage in an arena filled with music legends. That’s one reason why the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame ceremonies always make for great shows. And the most recent one honoring Soundgarden, OutKast, Warren Zevon, Bad Company, and others was no exception. I teared up during Letterman’s tribute to Zevon and got the chills during Brandi Carlile’s note-hitting during Black Hole Sun. The 2025 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony is on Hulu and Disney Plus.
+ What to Watch: Scrubs has made its return to TV. And it serves up the same goofy, feel-good comedy as it did the first time around (only we may need that a little more now).
+ What to Binge: The Peaky Blinders movie is hitting theaters this weekend. That doesn’t give me much time to binge all six seasons on Netflix. Gonna be a busy weekend...
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Extra, Extra
Off the Job: “The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, Labor Department data released Friday showed, sharply missing economists’ expectations and stalling the nascent hiring growth that started the year.” (On Truth Social, I’m guessing this is Biden’s fault. Job growth was so good under his administration that it had to go down under Trump!)
+ Noem on the Range: It’s worth noting that Kristi Noem was not fired for overseeing the murder of American citizens or sending untried men to overseas terror prisons, she was fired for a poor TV performance when being questioned by Congress, building her own image, and grifting without permission. Why Trump Changed His Mind on Kristi Noem. “It wasn’t the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis earlier this year that finally cost Noem her job ... it was her self-promotion.
+ Get Out of Jail Cardholders: Pardons are for sale these days. You just have to make sure you pay the right person. Or pay enough people that someone in the group can get the job done. NYT (Gift Article): Pardon Industry Offers Rich Offenders a Path to Trump.
+ Six Figures: Not everyone had to pay for their pardon. The Jan 6 rioters got theirs for free. Society’s deal has been less good.