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Welcome to A Billion to One, a weekly newsletter on tech, money, and power.

Markets in turmoil. Polymarket betting on an Iran ground invasion by year’s end. More than 11 million people on Instagram liking AI photos of Zendaya and Tom Holland’s would-be wedding. Now feels like a good time to log the hell off and catch up on any best-picture contenders you missed this year. As for me, I’m delusionally pulling for underdog Bugonia in every category. Jesse Plemons’s extremely online conspiracy theorist facing off with Emma Stone’s (possibly) extraterrestrial biotech CEO? Yes, please.


If you’re spending the week catching up on this year’s Oscar nominees, there’s one logo you won’t see before the credits: Paramount Pictures. Despite a rich history of Academy Award winners, from The Godfather to Titanic, the studio experienced a total shutout this year. On the other end of the spectrum? Paramount Skydance’s latest trophy, Warner Bros., which cleaned up with a record-breaking 30 noms. Helps explain the whopping $110 billion David Ellison just agreed to pay for its parent company in a historic potential merger. But can he keep the magic alive?


As it turns out, this Hollywood story is also a tech story, complete with AI transformations, Gulf sovereign wealth funds, and antitrust alarm bells. A Succession-worthy twist I didn’t see coming? David’s younger sister, Megan Ellison, has been gearing up for a quiet comeback. According to The Hollywood Reporter, she’s been reclaiming old office space in West Hollywood and rehiring familiar faces after years of lying low. Something interesting no one seems to have noticed: Their dad, Larry Ellison, started having kids again in his 70s, according to The Information. (Vanity Fair has reached out to Larry Ellison for comment.) Hope the big sibs are ready for some competition.


Got tech and money tips to share? You can reach me at julia_black@condenast.com, @mjnblack.09 on Signal, or @mjnblack on X.


Mentioned in this issue: David Ellison, Larry Ellison, Megan Ellison, Anthropic, Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, Loyal, DoorDash, Amazon, Substack, Roger Goodell, Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump, Alexandr Wang, James Franco, and more…

  • All eyes are on the Gulf’s sovereign wealth funds—and their role in propping up US tech investments—as the risk of widespread regional conflict in the Middle East grows. Many fear yanked investments, but I also received this surprising dispatch from a source who’s fundraising in London this weekend: “Speed of deployment is about to skyrocket…any coherent deals in America will be overfunded massively.”
  • Spotted at Rupert Murdoch’s 95th birthday party (by VF contributing editor Lachlan Cartwright): Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, Patriots owner Robert Kraft, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, and others…
  • Apparently, everyone is doing big, splashy parties to celebrate funding rounds these days—like dog-longevity company Loyal’s recent Series C bash, where, CEO Celine Halioua tells me, “DJ Purple did karaoke with a husky.” Keep the party reports coming.

Why this ad?

David Ellison, the chairman and chief executive officer of Paramount Skydance Corp. walks through Statuary Hall to the State of the Union address, February 24, 2026.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.

Will Paramount’s AI-first merger be a “force multiplier” or “Flyboys all over again”?

Hollywood is bracing for layoffs and big creative changes if the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery mega-merger goes through.

MARCH 10, 2026

At a party in DC last week, I got to talking with a media executive in line for the bar about what the landscape might look like in the coming years. He predicted countless small indie outlets catering to highly niche audiences…“and then David Ellison’s Skynet,” he deadpanned.


The Terminator reference was the kind of thing CGI-explosions fanatic Ellison might actually appreciate. And the joke being dropped at a defense-tech event in DC goes to show just how many different industries, from tech to politics, are keeping an eye on the M&A drama unfolding in Hollywood this month.


The pending merger could bring dozens of media properties, including Paramount Pictures, Warner Bros., HBO, and CBS, all under one roof (with TikTok, Oracle, and other Silicon Valley ties at an arm’s reach via David’s father, billionaire Larry Ellison). “We’re using technology to transform every single aspect of this business,” the younger Ellison told CNBC last week.


To execute that mission, Paramount hired Dane Glasgow as its chief product officer. Glasgow brings years of executive experience at companies like Meta and Google and holds over 50 issued or pending patents in areas like search, data mining, and commerce. He’ll surely be tasked with plenty of boring back-end stuff like consolidating the studios’ workflows under Oracle-backed systems, given that Oracle has reportedly been in talks to provide cloud software for Paramount Skydance. But you can also count on him to put that Big Tech experience to work on AI-driven personalization and targeted advertising.


As for the streaming side, you can expect to find all of Ellison’s properties—from CNN to MTV—on a single app. Some industry insiders fear that all this consolidation could diminish the work of prestige brands like HBO, which Ellison calls his “crown jewel.”


And then there’s the multibillion-dollar AI question. Ellison himself insists that he sees AI “as a tool for artists” and a “force multiplier,” not “a replacement for human creativity.” Those are the kinds of terms the actors and writers guilds will be pushing to formalize in their contract negotiations this spring.


With the help of these tech-driven efficiencies, Ellison has promised to release 30 films per year between the two studios—all of which he says will receive a full theatrical release. While Paramount didn’t exactly clean up during this year’s awards season, I spoke with a veteran awards consultant who said she’s not counting it out just yet. “People don’t always lead with their chin about awards,” she told me. “The movies have got to open and make money for these guys with their business model, and then go from there.” A source close to the company told me that while Paramount did disband its small awards team in the fall, it could reevaluate post-merger and either rehire these awards roles or outsource them to specialized external agencies.


AI could also unlock new potential for WBD’s treasure trove of IP, from Harry Potter to DC Comics. For that potential, Ellison and company are paying a hefty $110 billion—a number that was driven up by a fierce bidding war with Netflix. “I find it really telling that Larry Ellison is basically buying the most frontier edge investment you can make in AI data centers, and then also the oldest and most resilient thing in Superman,” said John Coogan, cohost of the Los Angeles–based tech podcast TBPN. Ellison, he argued, is placing bets that are both “long slop and anti-slop.”


But not everyone is convinced by this strategy. Paramount Skydance is “doing it by taking on almost unspeakably massive quantities of debt. It’s basically like a private equity deal,” former Democratic FTC commissioner Alvaro Bedoya told me Monday. “And what happens with private equity is you need to show a cleaned-up ledger and balance sheet. And the easiest way to do that is to lay people off, because people are expensive.” A representative for Paramount claims that layoff fears are overblown, telling Vanity Fair, “Synergies will be achieved by six key areas—jobs are not the majority.”

The Ellisons are both “long slop and anti-slop.”

Which brings us to the free speech implications of consolidating so many news operations. Last year, Team Paramount said it would take $24 billion from Saudi, Qatari, and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds—and as of Sunday, according to sources who spoke to Bloomberg, China’s “national champion” Tencent is considering investing several hundred million dollars, which the Paramount representative brushed off as “a rumor.” (Remember: Paramount Skydance’s own market cap hovers somewhere around $12 billion.)


Bedoya, who is still hopeful that the California attorney general could shut this whole thing down, fears these foreign entities’ motivations could have more to do with buying influence than with profits. “They’re buying a bunch of linear cable channels that everyone understands is the opposite of the future of media.”


“This is Flyboys all over again,” he said. Even with Daddy Ellison’s backing, David Ellison’s early acting vehicle alongside James Franco “did not achieve landing. It was a total financial disaster.”

  • AI-focused super PACs have spent $9.36 million on the 2026 elections so far. You can expect that number to go way up in the coming months, especially as AI’s approval rating in an NBC News survey is clocking in at just 26%—12 points lower than ICE.
  • Meta has acquired Moltbook, the social network for AI bots, for an undisclosed sum. This is the most intriguing news to come out of Meta’s Superintelligence Labs in ages, and I’m eager to see what Alexandr Wang has planned for it.
  • More than a million people are signing up for Claude every day, following Anthropic’s big week of #Resistance.
  • AI pioneer—and recent Meta defector—Yann LeCun has raised a $1.03 billion seed round for his Paris-based start-up Advanced Machine Intelligence. Is Europe so back?
  • Head of engineering at an AI start-up: $2.45 million. DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub delivery driver: $75,000. VC: $3.5 million. Amazon warehouse associate: $47,520. Substack ghost writer: $164,768. I loved this New York magazine story about New Yorkers’ salaries—and all the different ways the tech world shapes them.