Washington, DC

1. Trump’s troubles
2. US seeks end to war
3. Another DHS vote
4. VZ bond scrutiny
5. Oil exec still detained
6. Crypto’s midterms push
7. Focus group angst
8. Iran clouds G7

PDB: Concerns about energy costs hold steady 

Trump hosts Cabinet meeting … OECD cuts 2026 eurozone growth forecast on Middle East war … AFP: Israel says Iran Guards navy commander killed in strike

Trump squeezed by war and shutdown

President Donald Trump is at a perilous moment in his second term, with few paths to clean victories, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. The war with Iran is grinding on, energy prices are rising, a partial government shutdown is hobbling air travel, and the party lost two Florida state-level special elections. “We need to finish off the Iranian war, disable them from being able to pursue nuclear weapons or develop ballistic missiles,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. Inside the White House, aides are urging the GOP not to panic — US operations have decimated Tehran’s leadership and military capabilities, and Trump will sell any DHS deal as a win. But allies are nervous: One GOP senator described Iran as a “f*cking clusterf*ck and entirely predictable.” Another person close to the White House urged Trump to “take your wins when you can take them.”

US eyes end to war as Iran digs in

The US appeared to be accelerating efforts to end the Iran war, though Tehran remained defiant. Trump has told aides he expects the conflict to conclude within weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported, as suggested by his scheduling of a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in mid-May. Israel intensified its strikes against Iran in an apparent belief that it is running out of time; stocks fell and oil rose on bets the countries are unlikely to reach a compromise soon. Meanwhile, Iran is finalizing plans to impose fees on vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz, part of efforts to strengthen its grip on the waterway. Some regional powers, worried that a quick US exit from the region would leave Tehran in control of the passage, want to see a “conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats,” the UAE’s ambassador to the US said.

House tries again on DHS funding

The House is going to vote again today on funding the Department of Homeland Security. Don’t expect this bill to end the shutdown. There’s some hope in the upper chamber, where senators from both parties are working to agree on some reforms to immigration enforcement after a vote without those changes failed Wednesday. On the other side of the Capitol, House GOP leaders want to use today’s vote to pressure Democrats. “This is common sense versus crazy,” Speaker Mike Johnson said. It’s spawning some jitters: Reps. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., Don Davis, D-N.C., and Adam Gray, D-Calif., huddled Wednesday with Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., on the DHS negotiations. Gottheimer called the meeting “productive.” Meanwhile, Democratic leaders are hoping to hold their caucus together to oppose the GOP-led funding bill while pushing a discharge petition to fund DHS without ICE.

— Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett

Venezuela bond trades trigger scrutiny

Senate Democrats are asking regulators for data on trades of Venezuelan bonds in the days before and after the Trump administration captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. “In light of President Trump’s acknowledgement that he shared details of his military plans to public and private sector actors ahead of January 3, 2026, these details are essential to understanding whether or not individuals misused material, non-public information for private financial gain,” Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, and Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., wrote in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority that was shared first with Semafor. They cite data that shows Venezuela’s sovereign bonds and bonds linked to the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., rallied before and after the raid. The SEC and FINRA declined to comment.

— Eleanor Mueller

Oil magnate still detained in Venezuela

Oil tycoon Wilmer Ruperti showed up for a meeting with Venezuela’s intelligence agency last Thursday. A week later, he’s still in custody, one of his lawyers told Semafor. “We’ve reached out to everybody trying to get proof of life or some support,” Winston & Strawn’s Cari Stinebower said, adding that officials still haven’t conveyed “how he’s being treated or why he’s being detained.” Ruperti, who arrived at the meeting with a security detail, is a Venezuelan-Italian shipping magnate who trades in petroleum coke. His detainment followed interim President Delcy Rodríguez’s decision to elevate the intelligence agency’s longtime chief to defense minister. “The message is that Venezuela is open for business — but detaining businessmen for days on end without any due process or access to counsel is more old regime,” Stinebower said.

— Eleanor Mueller

Pro-crypto group’s midterms offensive

Stand With Crypto, the advocacy group that helped shepherd pro-cryptocurrency candidates into Congress last election cycle, is making its first foray into this year’s midterms. The offensive, reported first by Semafor, includes a new “voter hub” where digital assets users can learn candidates’ stances on the assets and view featured battleground races “where we think that our advocates will have a material impact,” Stand With Crypto’s Mason Lynaugh told Semafor. For the first batch, they’re backing Reps. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, Susie Lee, D-Nev., Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., Don Davis, D-N.C., Greg Landsman, D-Ohio, and Rob Bresnahan, R-Pa. — and opposing Reps. Scott Perry, R-Pa., and Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio. The rollout also includes polling conducted by Impact Research that found nearly six in 10 crypto owners don’t always vote for the same party.

— Eleanor Mueller

Swing voters are anxious, distrust media

A focus group with seven swing state voters, conducted for Navigator Research and watched by Semafor, found angst among female voters about the country’s direction and disdain for traditional media sources. “It’s just very overwhelming to me trying to figure out what direction we’re actually going in,” said a 40-year-old mother of three from Georgia, who’d voted for neither Trump nor Kamala Harris in 2024. “I feel like things are going to get worse before they get better,” said a 38-year-old mother in Wisconsin who’d supported Trump. And the voters surveyed didn’t seem to see either party as the solution. Even those who had voted for Harris couldn’t name a Democrat who spoke to their needs.

— David Weigel

Iran dominates G7 meeting in France

Disagreements over the Iran war will drive conversations at the Group of Seven meeting beginning today in France. Most G7 nations haven’t forcefully backed Trump’s war, and have instead drawn his ire for not doing enough to support the US military or help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit France tomorrow to argue in favor of the war to allies; the G7 foreign ministers will discuss Iran over lunch, according to a French diplomat, and explore ways to de-escalate the situation and reopen key maritime routes. While NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has voiced his approval for the war, European countries are wary of getting involved as accompanying spikes in energy prices threaten the global economy and fuel worries of stagflation. “It puts us in a really awkward and uncomfortable spot,” one EU diplomat told the Financial Times of Rutte’s comments.

— Morgan Chalfant

Blindspot: Congressional oversight

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Republican-led House Oversight Committee is investigating allegations of “rampant hospice fraud” in California, CBS reports.

What the Right isn’t reading: Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, claimed that President Trump showed a classified map to people on a flight to his New Jersey golf club in 2022.

This April, Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the largest gathering of global CEOs and officials in the United States — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the full lineup of speakers, including Global Advisory Board members, Fortune 500 CEOs, and elected officials from the US and across the G20.

Applications for Semafor World Economy Principals are now open — apply now.

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