Washington, DC

1. Senators stick around
2. Trump warns Iran
3. War powers math
4. $1.25B to Board of Peace
5. War highlights oil volatility
6. Mortgage rates rise

More than 3,000 TSA agents called out yesterday, with callout rates ▲ to 40% in Atlanta and Houston.

Frustrations boil over in Senate shutdown talks

Senators are trying to hammer out a deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security as frustrations rise over the 41-day shutdown and their desire to flee DC grows, according to members of both parties. At the moment, Democrats say Republicans’ latest offer has barely moved from earlier this week and doesn’t address their demands for immigration enforcement policy changes: “I don’t think it fully meets what we’re looking for, but at least we’re talking,” said Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, who caucuses with Democrats. Republicans are convinced any deal will not be supported by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said Democrats need “enough courage to tell him to go pound sand. He’s gonna play lefty to AOC” no matter the end product. Notably, senators are preparing to stay in Washington into Friday.

— Burgess Everett

Trump administration prepares for multiple Iran scenarios

President Donald Trump started off the day with a warning for Tehran’s leaders: “Get serious soon, before it is too late,” he wrote on Truth Social. That hard line continued during his Cabinet meeting, where Trump dismissed reports that he’s eager to make a deal with Iran. “I’m the opposite of desperate. I don’t care,” Trump said, adding: “We have other targets we want to hit before we leave.” The remarks come as the US continues delicate talks with Iran. In private and public, officials close to the president have often said he is always willing to make a deal — but he’s also OK with doing the opposite if an agreement isn’t feasible. On that note, he announced this afternoon that he would hold off on threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, not tomorrow.

— Shelby Talcott

Funding vote will test GOP appetite for rebellion on Iran

House Republicans are frustrated with the vagueness they’re hearing from the Trump administration on Iran, particularly about possible ground troops — but the trickier question is, what might they do about it? One answer will come when Democrats force a new war powers vote, which is likely to happen in early April. Despite pressure from the left to act now, Democrats wanted to ensure they had the votes to win on war powers, and they’re finally close; with Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., signaling a likely yes, Democrats would need to flip three of their previous four holdouts (which is achievable). But even that victory would be symbolic. A similar war powers measure failed in the Senate this week, and Trump could sustain a veto. The more serious test of a potential House GOP revolt on Iran will come whenever Trump’s war funding request materializes.

— Nicholas Wu

State sends $1.25B to Board of Peace

The State Department has drawn on funds for international disasters and peacekeeping to transfer $1.25 billion to Trump’s Board of Peace, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller scoops. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., is introducing legislation to redirect $1 billion of that money to the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program. The bill, shared first with Semafor, comes as the war in Iran spikes energy costs. “Instead of giving President Trump a $1 billion blank check to fund a ‘Board of Peace’ that has offered no transparency about how it is investing its money, let’s focus on helping American families afford their monthly power bill,” Cortez Masto said. Of the $1.25 billion State is giving to Trump’s board to rebuild Gaza, officials pulled $1 billion from international disaster assistance; $200 million from peacekeeping operations; and $50 million from international organizations and programs.

Financial markets underestimate oil and gas disruption

The prevailing sentiment at CERAWeek is that financial markets have not yet come to terms with how long-lasting the oil and gas market disruption from the war is likely to be, even if the US military quickly prevails. The war has highlighted the inherent volatility of the global fossil fuel trade at a time when alternative technologies are proliferating. Renewables are exposed to upfront supply chain risks; China effectively controls the market for wind, solar, and battery hardware, and for required minerals. But once installed, they’re largely insulated from geopolitical events, as Pakistan proved in recent weeks by leaning on solar while neighboring Bangladesh suffers from skyrocketing gas prices. “The fact that the wind and sun are free and domestic and inexhaustible doesn’t get nearly as much play as it deserves,” David Crane, a former energy official and CEO of Generate Capital, told Semafor.

— Tim McDonnell

Iran war spills over to mortgage rates

Mortgage rates jumped again this week, with the average for a 30-year fixed mortgage hitting 6.38%, according to new data from Freddie Mac. Before the start of the war in Iran, rates had fallen below 6%, their lowest level since 2022. Increasing oil prices have driven fears that inflation will rise and that the Federal Reserve will leave short-term rates unchanged. As the spring home-buying season begins, higher mortgage rates could slow sales, dampening the market’s modest rebound in February, when pending home sales rose 1.8%.

— Lauren Morganbesser

This April, Kevin Hassett, Director, National Economic Council, will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the largest convening of top global CEOs and government officials in the United States — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the full lineup of speakers, including Global Advisory Board members, Fortune 500 CEOs, and top elected officials from the US and across the G20.

Trump Administration

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a Cabinet meeting today that 44% of tax returns filed so far have “claimed at least one of your signature policies: No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security.” He added that the average tax refund is up more than 10% “for working Americans,” Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports.

Shutdown

• President Trump is weighing whether to sidestep Congress to pay TSA agents, while some Senate Republicans are pressing him to declare a national emergency to free up funding. — WaPo and WSJ

Congress

• Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D-Fl., who faced a rare public Ethics Committee hearing over accusations that she stole millions in FEMA funds, sought out a presidential pardon at last year’s White House Christmas party. — The Hill
• President Trump’s MAHA-aligned pick for surgeon general has stalled in the Senate.

Kennedy Center

• The Kennedy Center began layoffs ahead of President Trump’s plan to shut it down for two years.

Iran

• Israel announced it had killed the Iranian naval commander leading attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Two people were killed by debris from an intercepted missile above Abu Dhabi, as Iranian strikes on Gulf states continue.
• Since the start of the war, Iran has likely earned hundreds of millions of dollars more on oil exports than it would have otherwise. — Bloomberg
• The US is considering diverting interceptors intended for Ukraine to the Middle East. — WaPo

World

• The Pentagon killed four people it accused of drug smuggling in the Caribbean on Wednesday, bringing the number of deaths from the US’ campaign of boat strikes to 163. — NYT

Sports

• The White House endorsed the International Olympic Committee’s new ban on transgender athletes in women’s sports.

— Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff on negotiations with Iran at today’s Cabinet meeting.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor