Good morning. Markets are running out of patience, economic reports are only just beginning to show the effects of rising oil prices, and Allied Gold shareholders are voting on a proposed takeover by a Chinese mining company. Those stories are in focus this week – plus, how the Blue Jays are hoping to have all their angles covered.

Trade: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is leading a trade-diversification mission to China this week, expanding on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent trip to reset strained bilateral ties.

Climate: Battle lines are being drawn as Ottawa crafts new regulations that will tackle road pollution by Canadian drivers – and go some distance toward shaping the country’s automotive market for the next decade.

Travel: Private technology firm Hopper Inc. is set to announce today that it has signed a long-term deal to power the travel program for Royal Bank of Canada’s Avion Rewards Visa card members.

For markets, a matter of time: Iranian-backed Houthi forces entered the Middle East conflict on the weekend, launching missiles toward Israel and raising the risk of renewed attacks on commercial shipping through the Red Sea.

The move adds pressure to an already strained energy and trade system, as Iran continues to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. forces expand their presence in the region. Regional powers are set to meet for talks, while Washington has given Iran until April 6 to reopen the strait.

Markets aren’t offering many safe options as the war hits almost every corner of the financial system. Oil has climbed above US$100 a barrel, pushing up borrowing costs and inflation expectations, while stocks have fallen across regions, with sharper drops in Asia and more modest losses in the United States.

Assets that usually provide shelter aren’t helping: Gold is down sharply, government bonds are selling off, and currencies like the yen are weakening, leaving the U.S. dollar as the main place investors are parking money as volatility spills into credit markets and dealmaking.

“Since the war broke out, we’ve reduced equities because there’s no place to ⁠hide,” said Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at Singapore-based GAMA Asset Management.

While markets have fallen, worries about missing a turning point in the war have tempered the selloff. This month’s drop is less than half of that prompted by the tariff proposals last spring. Even after four weeks of war, the S&P 500 is just 6 per cent below its last record high, notched in January.

But investors’ patience will be put to the test after U.S. officials said the war will last at least another month. And that might be on the optimistic side of possible outcomes. In a speech last week to oil-industry executives, former U.S. defence secretary James Mattis said a sustained easing of the conflict would require a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, reduced risk to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and an arrangement to which both the United States and Israel adhere.

If the U.S. were to declare victory and turn more aggressively toward an off-ramp, Iran would now say “they own the strait,” Mattis said. “You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through.”

“We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen. I can’t identify a lot of options.”

Before and after: Last spring, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans lurched from threat to delay to partial retreat, companies stopped pretending they could see through the fog.

Automakers, airlines and technology companies suspended or softened guidance rather than offer forecasts built on trade rules that might change by the week. Tariffs, however and whenever they landed, made offering any guidance a bit of a coin toss.

Nearly a year later, business and policy leaders – anyone watching the market, for that matter – find themselves again straddling two distinct eras. It’s not as if the world was on the brink of economic utopia before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, but many countries entered the year hoping a prolonged period of slow growth might finally find a higher gear in the latter half of 2026.

In their lending-rate decisions earlier this month, both Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell were among a string of central bankers saying higher energy prices will push up inflation in the near term. But no one knows the “scope and duration of the potential effects” of the war on the economy, Powell said.

On Wednesday, market watchers will be parsing the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations from its March meeting for signs of how concerned the governing council is over the energy shock feeding into prices of broader goods and services. Anticipating the bank’s next moves have created a split between money markets, which have priced in hikes – and economists, who argue the country’s soft economic growth and foundering labour market aren’t exactly unleashing a rush of spending.

Late expectations: Statistics Canada’s monthly gross domestic product report tomorrow, for example, is expected to show the economy likely stalled in January, owing largely to longer-than-expected auto plant shutdowns. Harsh weather also slowed housing activity, but gains in energy production and a rise in retail sales point to continued resilience in household spending, RBC economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu wrote.

Early numbers point toward a partial rebound in February as auto production resumed, and RBC expects first-quarter growth to remain modest overall.

On Thursday, Canada’s trade deficit is projected to narrow on stronger auto exports and higher oil prices.

The U.S. jobs report on Friday will headline a week of data that includes readings on manufacturing, services and retail sales, though much of it will reflect pre-shock conditions. March payrolls are expected to show modest gains of around 50,000 jobs after February’s decline – a figure that still largely reflects hiring decisions made before higher energy prices took hold. Surveys like the Institute for Supply Management report may begin to show rising input costs, economists say, but it will take time before the impact of those prices shows up more clearly in hiring and spending plans.