The war in the Gulf has already lasted longer than Donald Trump predicted when it began. Despite the president’s claims, few expect indirect talks between America and Iran will lead to a deal soon. All sides—America, Iran and Israel—see advantage in fighting on. But all risk overplaying their hands. It wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened in a Gulf conflict.

In America, higher prices at the pump will change consumers’ behaviour. Which businesses will profit, and which will suffer? Markets are beginning to signal the long-term consequences of the surge in fuel prices, and the breakdown of winners and losers isn’t entirely obvious.