Today, the president tells us, is judgment day in Iran. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump posted this morning. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” If his threats are to be believed, Iran must agree to open the Strait of Hormuz tonight or face—it feels strange to type it, but it’s right there in plain English—genocide. Talk about the art of the deal.

Bill and Andrew will be going live at 10 a.m. EDT for Morning Chaser today, with plenty to talk about. Tune in on Substack or YouTube. See you there. Happy Tuesday.

Trump’s Election Obsession

by Andrew Egger

If Iran caves or if it doesn’t, if Trump follows through on his threats or if he doesn’t, there will be lots to talk about tomorrow. For today, though, I wanted to turn briefly to another presidential obsession that’s gone under the radar lately: Trump’s ongoing attacks on American elections infrastructure.

So far this year, the president has failed to convince Congress to pass his SAVE America Act, which among other things would require voters nationwide to show proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote or vote by mail. But last week, he tried to scratch his election-meddling itch in another way: a one-weird-trick-style executive order trying to seize federal control of mail voting by creating new lists of whose ballots the Postal Service can and can’t mail.

“The cheating on mail-in voting is legendary,” Trump, who himself cast a mail-in ballot to vote in Florida days before, said at the signing ceremony. “It’s horrible, what’s gone on . . . I think this will help a lot with elections.”

In all likelihood, what the order will actually do, at least as a legal matter, is nothing. Its strategy—which involves ordering the Department of Homeland Security to create a list of “approved” absentee voters, and ordering the USPS not to mail requested ballots to anybody else—is legally hilarious, a slapped-together usurpation of states’ election authorities without the slightest basis in federal law. The order has already drawn a plethora of major lawsuits, which are all but guaranteed swift success.

And yet pro-democracy advocates who are focused on the president’s election predations remain wary. Not because they think the order has a prayer in court, but because they see it as part of a larger, ongoing presidential strategy to sow doubt about future American elections, or even to attempt to meddle with their outcomes after the fact. It remains gospel in MAGA circles that Democrats fiendishly stole the 2020 election on behalf of Joe Biden. And Trump keeps testing the waters of how much bullying of election officials he can get away with, most notably with the FBI’s January raid on the elections office in Fulton County, Georgia.

In this context, even a legal win against the order isn’t a total win. Trump still muddies the waters, still intimidates anyone connected with elections who might need the courage to stand up to him, still confuses voters about what is and isn’t allowed, and still gets another point of “rogue judges” grievance to parade before his followers as the justification for his next move.

“He can’t lose with this,” Alexandra Chandler of Protect Democracy told The Bulwark. “Because basically, if there is the faintest vanishing chance the courts didn’t stop him, then he gets a win there. If he doesn’t, he gets a win in a narrative sense, and it just is the pretext for the next round, for the next action and the next, and then the eventual denial of the [election] results.”

There’s a perverse attention trap at play here. The more insane, ludicrous stuff Trump does around the country and around the world—the war in Iran being the most obvious example—the more he hemorrhages his domestic political support. But at the same time, these controversies threaten to take our attention away from his insidious work to meddle in elections right in plain sight—efforts which, if successful, would make such trivialities as “maintaining domestic political support” pointless. Why bother with holding an electoral coalition together if you think this time around you’ll just be able to steal the whole game?

We should take heed of all this. Trump really is losing support at a remarkable rate; all the old received wisdom about the impregnability of Teflon Don really does seem to have fallen apart. But Trump still has his hands around the neck of American democracy with a much surer grip than he had in 2020. And too much of the country seems strangely confident—just as in 2020, and with even less justification now than then—that he’ll simply choose not to squeeze.