Trump's Defeat in Iran

Friends,

Last night, 90 minutes before Trump said he’d cause the death of a “whole civilization” if Iran didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian official said the shipping channel would be reopened for two weeks if the United States stopped bombing Iran. The U.S. has now stopped bombing Iran.

So we’re back to the status quo before Trump began his war. Only now, Iran can credibly threaten to close the strait if it doesn’t get what it wants from Trump — thereby causing havoc to the U.S. (and world) economies. Trump’s only remaining bargaining leverage is the threat of committing war crimes.

In other words, last night’s showdown was a clear victory for Iran and a clear defeat for Trump (although he’ll frame it as a victory).

The Iran fiasco is only the latest in a host of examples revealing how to defeat Trump.

In addition to Iran, similar strategies have been used by China, Russia, Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. Inside the United States, the people of Minneapolis have used them, as have Harvard University, comedian Jimmy Kimmel, writer E. Jean Carroll, and the law firms Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block, Susman Godfrey, and WilmerHale.

What’s the strategy that connects them all?

All refused to cave to Trump, despite his superior military or economic power. Instead, they’ve engaged in a kind of jujitsu in which they use Trump’s power against him, while allowing Trump to save face by claiming he’s won. Consider:

Iran knew it was no match for the superior might of the U.S. (and Israel). So it used cheap drones and missiles to close the Strait of Hormuz and incapacitate other Gulf oil installations, thereby driving up the prices of oil and gas at the pump in the U.S., which has put growing political pressure on Trump, months before a midterm election. Hence, Trump has been forced stop his war.

China knew what to do when Trump imposed a giant tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S.: It put restrictions on seven types of heavy rare earth metals and magnets, crucial to U.S. defense and tech industries. Beijing continues to use these rare earth restrictions as tactical levers in ongoing negotiations over trade, rather than demand complete surrender by Trump on his trade policies.

Russia has leveraged its vast deposits of oil and natural gas with U.S. allies. It has also demonstrated its power to intrude into U.S. elections (the Mueller Report detailed a “sweeping and systematic” campaign by Russia to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, primarily favoring Trump).

Canada and Mexico have won every tariff showdown with Trump by leveraging America’s substantial economic dependence on them for components and raw materials, but without crowing about their victories.

Greenland has leveraged public opinion globally and in the United States — overwhelmingly against an American invasion or occupation — to curb Trump’s ambitions there.

The citizens of Minneapolis and St. Paul have leveraged their asymmetric power against Trump’s ICE and Border Patrol agents by carefully organizing themselves into a force of nonviolent resistance to protect immigrants there. Their strategy showed itself to be especially effective, tragically, after Trump’s agents murdered Renee Good and Alex Pretti, and the public outcry forced the agents to leave the Twin Cities.

Harvard University’s strategy for resisting Trump’s interference in Harvard’s academic freedom has been to leverage its influence with the federal courts in Boston and the Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, to get rulings that stopped Trump (although he’s still trying).

Comedian Jimmy Kimmel turned a political crisis into a ratings victory by using the public backlash against his suspension from ABC/Disney (after ABC/Disney initially caved to Trump’s demands that he be taken off the air). Since ABC/Disney reinstated him, Kimmel has continued to target Trump, and secured his contract through 2027.

Writer E. Jean Carroll defeated Donald Trump in two civil cases by leveraging New York’s Adult Survivors Act to prove that Trump sexually abused and defamed her, ultimately securing over $88 million in damages from him — verdicts that have been upheld by federal appeals courts. Carroll’s lawyers used a civil lawsuit, requiring a lower burden of proof (”preponderance of evidence”) than criminal cases. They presented the jury with Trump’s “Access Hollywood” tape and testimony from other Trump accusers. The real jujitsu was that Trump’s continued public statements about Carroll, which the court deemed defamatory, led to her second lawsuit. His depositions, where he called her a “whack job,” were played for the jury.

The law firms Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block, Susman Godfrey, and WilmerHale refused to follow Trump’s executive orders targeting law firms that had represented causes or clients that Trump opposed. The orders threatened to revoke the firms’ security clearances, access to federal buildings and officials, and government contracts tied to firm clients. But the firms didn’t back down. They leveraged constitutional arguments with the federal courts — arguing that the orders infringed on their First Amendment rights to advocate whatever causes they wished, violated the Constitution’s separation of powers because the orders would prevent the judiciary from considering challenges to executive authority, and violated their clients’ rights under the Constitution to be represented.

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia agreed with the firms and blocked these orders with permanent injunctions. The Justice Department ultimately dropped its fight against these firms in March 2026 after federal appellate judges also found Trump’s orders unconstitutional.

What’s happened to the countries and organizations that have caved to Trump?

All have strengthened Trump’s leverage over them. Europe seems incapacitated, fearing Trump will leave NATO (despite a U.S. law prohibiting it) but unable to decide where to draw the line with him.

ABC continues to lose viewers and while being subject to Trump’s whims. CBS was purchased by Trump allies Larry Ellison and his son, David, and is hemorrhaging talent.

Columbia University has been wracked by dissent from both students and faculty. The Trump regime continues to make demands of it.

The National Museum of American History has lost credibility and talent.

The law firms that caved in to Trump’s executive orders have seen lawyers exit who felt the deals betrayed the firms’ values and principles. Microsoft dropped Simpson Thacher to work with Jenner & Block — a firm that fought Trump — due to Microsoft’s concerns over Simpson’s commitment to the rule of law. Students at elite law schools have also reportedly begun to shun firms that struck deals with the Trump regime.

Bottom line: There’s now a clear blueprint for how to defeat Trump, available to any country, organization, or person on which he seeks to impose his will: Reject his demands and then use your own asymmetric power — a form of jujitsu — to turn Trump’s power against him.

Which is what Iran did last night.

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