Why ships don't want to run the gauntlet ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

When announcing this week’s ceasefire agreement with Iran, US President Donald Trump claimed it would result in a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz” (emphasis entirely his).

Only that didn’t happen. Some Iran-backed ships made it through, but most tankers stayed put. Any hope of safe passage then dissipated as Israel attacked Lebanon, prompting Iran to undo what little progress had been made.

But as international shipping expert Jennifer Parker writes, it’s not really a matter of the strait being “open” or “closed”. It’s about countries all over the world reassuring ships that moving through the strait is safe.

Parker says there are plenty of things that could be done. But until they are, the ships – and their oil – aren’t going anywhere.

Erin Cooper-Douglas

Public Policy Editor

 

What will it take to get ships going through the Strait of Hormuz again?

Jennifer Parker, The University of Western Australia; UNSW Sydney

The ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran has done little so far to getting shipping through the vital waterway. It’s going to take more than just words to fix.

Best reads this week

‘A whole civilisation will die tonight’: Trump’s genocide threat against Iran was another new low for America

Rodrigo Praino, Flinders University

Donald Trump’s pre-ceasefire social media post was unprecedented, immoral, and a diplomatic blunder for the US’s standing in the world.

In mediating the US-Iran peace talks, Pakistan is flexing its geopolitical muscles

Samina Yasmeen, The University of Western Australia

Pakistan is using shared history – and plenty of friends in high places – to bring the war to an end. Here why it’s had the sway to do it.

Slopaganda wars: how (and why) the US and Iran are flooding the zone with viral AI-generated noise

Mark Alfano, Macquarie University; Michał Klincewicz, Tilburg University

Even obviously fake propaganda videos can influence viewers – and erode their trust in all kinds of information.

By avoiding means testing, the government is giving handouts to the rich

Robert Breunig, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

The shift towards universal policies may seem fair, but it’s creating a system that gives to the wealthy at the expense of the poor.

Why the phrase ‘Super El Niño’ makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes

Kimberley Reid, The University of Melbourne

Media reports have suggested a “super” El Niño is looming. The problem is, these autumn forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

TC Weekly podcast

Pauline Hanson has a long list of enemies. It’s intentional

Ashlynne McGhee, The Conversation; Isabella Podwinski, The Conversation

Every populist movement needs a threat. One Nation found several: Asian immigration, native title and Islam just to name a few. But do those enemies still resonate?

The pseudoscientific attractiveness scale that grew out of incel forums and is now making money for looksmaxxing influencers

Gemma Ware, The Conversation

Sociologist Jordan Foster explains the origins of the PSL scale on The Conversation Weekly podcast.

Our most-read article this week

How might the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Here are 3 scenarios

Donald Rothwell, Australian National University

US President Donald Trump has threatened to “demolish” Iran if it doesn’t reopen the crucial shipping channel, but it’s not the most likely path to reopening.

In case you missed this week's big stories

Do voters share the blame?
“A majority of voters in the United States and Israel voted for Trump and Netanyahu in fair elections. Electors had significant amounts of information to base their decisions on the previous performance and public statements of both men and their governments. How far are electors responsible for the actions of the governments they elected? The recent and current aggressive actions of both the US and Israel are resulting in a significant number of deaths and serious injuries to innocent civilians and the deliberate targeted destruction of civil infrastructure, which appear to constitute war crimes. The public statements of the US president and his administration are abhorrent and appalling. So what’s the thinking on ‘collective moral responsibility’ and is there such a thing? If democracy is not a spectator sport, how do I as a player stay on the winning side of history?”
Paul Robertson

War is a gendered thing
“War is the end result of patriarchy. Do a gender count of who is involved. Men are not fit to rule alone. They are too aggressive. They undo the patient, unrecognised silent work of the true creators of life - women. This is why women must always be encouraged to have a public voice, rather than suppressed by men. Equality of gender rather than imbalance of gender is obviously needed. Don't tell me that there have been war mongering individual women leaders, I know that. Rather, I would draw attention to who always has been and is negotiating overly aggressive male behaviour. We need to add more women to peace negotiations.”
Patricia Hughes

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