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When announcing this week’s ceasefire agreement with Iran, US President Donald Trump claimed it would result in a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz” (emphasis entirely his).
Only that didn’t happen. Some Iran-backed ships made it through, but most tankers stayed put. Any hope of safe passage then dissipated as Israel attacked Lebanon, prompting Iran to undo what little progress had been made.
But as international shipping expert Jennifer Parker writes, it’s not really a matter of the strait being “open” or “closed”. It’s about countries all over the world reassuring ships that moving through the strait is safe.
Parker says there are plenty of things that could be done. But until they are, the ships – and their oil – aren’t going anywhere.
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Erin Cooper-Douglas
Public Policy Editor
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Jennifer Parker, The University of Western Australia; UNSW Sydney
The ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran has done little so far to getting shipping through the vital waterway. It’s going to take more than just words to fix.
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Best reads this week
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Rodrigo Praino, Flinders University
Donald Trump’s pre-ceasefire social media post was unprecedented, immoral, and a diplomatic blunder for the US’s standing in the world.
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Samina Yasmeen, The University of Western Australia
Pakistan is using shared history – and plenty of friends in high places – to bring the war to an end. Here why it’s had the sway to do it.
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Mark Alfano, Macquarie University; Michał Klincewicz, Tilburg University
Even obviously fake propaganda videos can influence viewers – and erode their trust in all kinds of information.
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Robert Breunig, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The shift towards universal policies may seem fair, but it’s creating a system that gives to the wealthy at the expense of the poor.
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Kimberley Reid, The University of Melbourne
Media reports have suggested a “super” El Niño is looming. The problem is, these autumn forecasts are notoriously unreliable.
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TC Weekly podcast
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Ashlynne McGhee, The Conversation; Isabella Podwinski, The Conversation
Every populist movement needs a threat. One Nation found several: Asian immigration, native title and Islam just to name a few. But do those enemies still resonate?
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Gemma Ware, The Conversation
Sociologist Jordan Foster explains the origins of the PSL scale on The Conversation Weekly podcast.
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Our most-read article this week
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Donald Rothwell, Australian National University
US President Donald Trump has threatened to “demolish” Iran if it doesn’t reopen the crucial shipping channel, but it’s not the most likely path to reopening.
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In case you missed this week's big stories
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Jessica Genauer, UNSW Sydney
With Trump trying to get out and Netanyahu determined not to give up in Lebanon, a path to peace is hard to find.
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Adrian Beaumont, The University of Melbourne
Trump’s net approval has never been lower, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election.
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Kevin Morrison, University of Technology Sydney
The Strait of Hormuz bottleneck may be about to reopen – but damage to oil infrastructure will mean lingering pain in Australia – and worldwide.
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Paul Taucher, Murdoch University; Dean Aszkielowicz, Murdoch University
Australia’s most decorated living soldier, who has always denied any wrongdoing, is facing criminal proceedings. The path to this point has been long and complex.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Nationals Leader Matt Canavan and Liberal Leader Angus Taylor are very different beasts. With a byelection and budget reply looming, Taylor has challenges aplenty.
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Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney
Economic activity is still solid for now – but these are the risks ahead.
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Erin Harper, University of Sydney
A major Australian study found kids who spend 40 hours or more in childcare may struggle more with social skills and emotions than those who attend for less time.
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Iris Lim, Bond University
Many women can go straight to the pharmacy and get antibiotics without having to wait to see a doctor. But some symptoms can signal a more serious infection.
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Meru Sheel, University of Sydney; Allen Cheng, Monash University
There has already been a lot of flu this year but the flu season is unlikely to peak until late winter.
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Chris James, The University of Queensland
The high-speed, hypersonic and extremely hot re-entry is the last challenge the Artemis II crew will have to endure on their epic 10-day mission.
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Do voters share the blame?
“A majority of voters in the United States and Israel voted for Trump and Netanyahu in fair elections. Electors had significant amounts of information to base their decisions on the previous performance and public statements of both men and their governments. How far are electors responsible for the actions of the governments they elected? The recent and current aggressive actions of both the US and Israel are resulting in a significant number of deaths and serious injuries to innocent civilians and the deliberate targeted destruction of civil infrastructure, which appear to constitute war crimes. The public statements of the US president and his
administration are abhorrent and appalling. So what’s the thinking on ‘collective moral responsibility’ and is there such a thing? If democracy is not a spectator sport, how do I as a player stay on the winning side of history?”
Paul Robertson
War is a gendered thing
“War is the end result of patriarchy. Do a gender count of who is involved. Men are not fit to rule alone. They are too aggressive. They undo the patient, unrecognised silent work of the true creators of life - women. This is why women must always be encouraged to have a public voice, rather than suppressed by men. Equality of gender rather than imbalance of gender is obviously needed. Don't tell me that there have been war mongering individual women leaders, I know that. Rather, I would draw attention to who always has been and is negotiating overly aggressive male behaviour. We need to add more women to peace negotiations.”
Patricia Hughes
We'd love to hear from you. You can email us with your thoughts on our stories and each day we'll publish an edited selection.
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