The global economy experienced the equivalent of the moment when, after hours of standstill traffic, the car in front of you finally starts inching forward. Iran said yesterday that it had opened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial shipping in response to the US brokering a ceasefire that paused Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon.

Wall Street cheered the prospect of sustained peace and the unlocking of the waterway that serves as a crucial conduit for fuel, fertilizer, and industrial goods—though confusion remained about how free-flowing Hormuz traffic will really be. But even as President Trump expressed optimism that the war would end soon, uncertainty reigned.

Yesterday morning, Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social, but said that the US will continue the blockade of Iran-affiliated traffic in Hormuz that it started this week until there’s a peace agreement between the two countries. In the evening, Iran threatened to stop passage through the strait again if the US blockade continued.

So, what’s next? Trump sounded a confident note in media interviews and social media posts:

• He told Axios he expects to reach a peace deal “within a day or two,” and said to CBS that Iran had “agreed to everything,” including giving up its enriched uranium.
• However, Iran did not confirm his claims, with the country’s top negotiator saying Trump had made seven false claims in one hour.

Cautious optimism

There’s an estimated 135 million barrels of oil in tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf because of Iran’s closing of the strait, per Bloomberg Intelligence. And investors think they’re closer to reaching global markets soon:

• Oil futures fell as much as 13% yesterday, dropping below $90 per barrel for the first time in over a month.
• Shares of oil giants experiencing a windfall from sky-high oil prices also dipped.
• Airline stocks surged on optimism that jet fuel shortages would be alleviated, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index soaring more than 6%.

But…even before Iran threatened to shut the route down again, shipping experts cautioned that vessels still had security concerns about traversing Hormuz.

Looking ahead: Peace talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue soon.—SK, AR

Anthropic’s CEO went to the White House. Sure, his company is suing over the Pentagon’s decision to brand it a “supply chain risk,” but that didn’t stop Dario Amodei from scoring an invite to meet with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue yesterday. With Anthropic having tipped off the government before unveiling its powerful Mythos model—which can find cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than any human hacker, raising major concerns—there may be better reasons to work together than fight, especially as government agencies are said to be seeking Mythos access. Both the White House and Anthropic called the meeting “productive.”—AR

Chevron wins SCOTUS battle over environmental damage suit. In a victory for oil companies fighting over whether they should have to pay for Louisiana’s coastal erosion, the Supreme Court ruled 8–0 yesterday that Chevron can move a lawsuit from state to federal court—where the company is likely to find more sympathy. There are numerous similar lawsuits pending against oil and gas companies that will likely be impacted. It also jeopardizes a $745 million state court judgment against Chevron to help restore damaged areas. “Chevron looks forward to litigating these cases in federal court, where they belong,” the company said.—AR

The San Diego Padres are nearing a record sale. The Seidler family, which has owned the Padres since 2012, is on the verge of selling the franchise to private-equity billionaire José E. Feliciano and his wife, Kwanza Jones, for ~$3.9 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. That’d be the highest valuation ever for an MLB team, eclipsing the previous record of $2.4 billion spent by Steve Cohen to buy the New York Mets in 2020. The deal, which is expected to be announced next week, would make Feliciano and Jones the first Puerto Rican and African-American majority owners in MLB history.—DL

Slop bowls are out and Goop bowls are in. At least that’s what Gwyneth Paltrow is betting on. The actress-turned-entrepreneur is expanding her food takeout business, Goop Kitchen, to New York City, after a successful launch on the West Coast. We assume gluten futures are already tanking.

The concept: Goop Kitchen is an offshoot of the separately run Goop, Paltrow’s multimillion-dollar lifestyle and luxury diaper company. It offers “certified clean” takeout food that was designed to travel well, like bowls, wraps, salads, soups, and pizzas that are made without gluten, seed oils, or processed ingredients. The prices are better than you might expect from the founder of a company that once featured a five-figure backgammon set, with menu items hovering in the $15 to $25 range. However, some have very questionable pun names, like Goopfellas Pizza.

Recipe for success: Five years after it started, Goop Kitchen currently has 11 locations in Los Angeles and three in the San Francisco Bay Area. And they’re doing well—the company told the Wall Street Journal:

• Goop Kitchens serve more than 40,000 customers a week.
• Half of its locations make $20,000 per day on average.
• Year over year sales grew 48% in fiscal year 2024, and 61% in FY 2025.

Ghost Space Coast to Coast: Three Manhattan locations are slated to open on Monday. Like the California outposts, they’ll use ghost kitchens to prepare food items for pickup or delivery only. Miami, Paris, and London could be next, Paltrow said.—BC