So, here’s the not-so-dirty secret of a sportswriter’s life:
Half of my job is spent deciding what to write on any given day for the newspaper, website or this newsletter.
Some days, the topic is obvious. An injury. A trade. An important win or loss. Most days, the menu of options is much longer.
Timing is everything, so I’ll often keep an idea in my head for weeks, waiting for the right moment to publish.
Which brings us to this morning.
It seemed like it might be time to review the signing of Cedric Mullins. After going 0-for-4 on Sunday, Mullins is hitting .138, which is the lowest batting average in the majors for qualified hitters. Considering Mullins was Tampa Bay’s biggest offseason signing among hitters, that seems significant.
Except, timing is everything, right? And the Rays have won four in a row while moving within 1 ½ games of the Yankees in the AL East. Complaining about an offseason signing right now seems overly critical. Especially when the Rays have two other signings that have worked out incredibly well.
Granted, we’re only about 15% of the way into 2026. Fortunes could change dramatically in a week’s time.
But, as of today, Nick Martinez and Steven Matz are looking like two of the best bargains of the winter.
Here’s the simplest way to explain it:
The Rays are 8-2 in the 10 games started by Matz and Martinez. Tampa Bay has gone 8-9 when anyone else has started.
Basically, these two veteran pitchers have stabilized a rotation that was revamped with the trades of Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Shane Baz. Martinez leads the Rays in innings pitched, is fifth in the American League in ERA at 2.10 and he’s held hitters to a ridiculous .143 average with runners on base.
Matz, who has transitioned back to starting after spending most of 2024-25 in the bullpen, has given the Rays a chance to win in virtually every start. He threw at least five innings in each of his first four starts and left the game either tied or with a lead.
And how does that stack up with other starting pitchers who signed free-agent deals in the offseason?
Well, Martinez and Justin Verlander both signed one-year deals for $13 million. Martinez has his 2.10 ERA and 1.100 WHIP while Verlander has spent most of the year on the injured list and has a 12.27 ERA. Matz signed a two-year contract for $15 million, which sounds far better than the two-year, $22 million deal former Ray Adrian Houser got in San Francisco. Houser is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA today.
The point is that we (and by we, I mean me) sometimes tend to focus on shortcomings. Mullins? He’s struggling, no doubt about it. Since the start of last season, he’s hit .203 with a sickly .651 OPS. Some of that is offset by his above-average work in centerfield, but the Rays cannot wait too much longer for his bat to come around.
What Martinez and Matz have done is not showy, but it’s a huge part of where the Rays are in the standings. Take away those two signings, and Tampa Bay is struggling to stay afloat.
