Good evening. Tonight we’ll look at a stunning legal defeat for Democrats in Virginia that could upend the midterm calculus. And we’ll take you to Iowa, a crucial state in presidential elections that is increasingly important this year, too.
Virginia delivers a big midterm surprise
It’s been a rough spring for Republicans. Gas prices are high, the war with Iran is unpopular and President Trump’s approval ratings are low. Then came today’s ruling from Virginia’s top court. The decision to strike down the state’s new congressional map — drawn by Democrats and recently approved by voters — deals a huge blow to the party as Democrats strain to keep up with the Republicans in the redistricting wars, my colleagues Campbell Robertson, Nick Corasaniti and Reid Epstein wrote. In effect, the ruling is set to wipe out four newly drawn Democratic-leaning U.S. House districts in Virginia. Add in other states working to pass Republican-friendly new maps, and Democrats stand to lose half a dozen safe seats, and possibly more, from redistricting alone. Republicans have been widely seen as likely to lose the House — and they still very well might — but after a series of favorable redistricting developments, the party has built a clear structural advantage that will give it more hope of maintaining control of Congress. Keep an eye on our politics coverage this weekend. My colleagues will have more soon about what this all means for the midterms.
How Vance’s splashy Iowa trip wentMy colleague Shane Goldmacher just got back from a reporting trip to Iowa, where he saw Vice President JD Vance, an expected presidential contender, in the state that will kick off the 2028 Republican nominating contest. He also took the political temperature of a place that has shifted sharply away from Democrats over the last decade — but that appears increasingly competitive this year. Shane and I have spent plenty of time covering presidential hopefuls in Iowa together. I wanted to hear more about what he learned on his latest trip, so we caught up over Slack about Vance’s performance, the mood among Republicans and the hard truth about Iowa’s famous butter cow. Excerpts from our conversation, edited and condensed, are below. Shane, thanks for joining us. How was Vance received in Iowa? Vance’s reception was … fine? This was his first trip to Iowa as vice president. He delivered the Republican talking points for the midterms crisply, defending Representative Zach Nunn, the vulnerable Republican he was there to assist, and the party overall. He stumbled at times. He didn’t have a teleprompter, lost track of his notes at one point and called out for help to name Nunn’s Democratic opponent. But he also generated at least one resounding cheer of “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” What was happening backstage and in the audience were as interesting as anything he said onstage. Now you must tell us more! Vance did a photo line backstage with a number of Iowa Republicans and elected officials. Two that caught my attention were Bob Vander Plaats, who fashions himself an evangelical kingmaker in the state, and Steve Deace, a popular conservative talk show host. These are exactly the kinds of people you would meet with if you were, say, planning to run for president. Which is what everyone presumes JD Vance is planning. I remember those names from our days covering Ted Cruz’s presidential bid in 2016. I believe both Vander Plaats and Deace supported him at the time (and Cruz did win the Iowa caucuses before losing to Trump in most other places). So, is the vice president in full 2028 mode already? The Vance team has been very careful to avoid looking like that ahead of the midterms. They know President Trump could be sensitive to any suggestion that his time is winding down. He’s very much trying to be Team Trump and to help out in the midterms. His fortunes are just so intertwined with the president’s. Polls show that he is a heavy front-runner in 2028, even if it is too early for polls to mean much. But over and over, as I asked Iowans at his event about 2028, they sang Vance’s praises — and then volunteered unbidden that they liked Marco Rubio, too. That’s really interesting. Is anyone else on the Republican side taking concrete steps, quietly or not, to lay presidential groundwork in Iowa or beyond? Concrete steps? No. But the fact that Rubio’s office packaged his viral appearance at the White House briefing room this week with music from a Superman movie has certainly raised some eyebrows. Even if he has said he would defer to Vance in 2028. Oh, and speaking of Ted Cruz, he just so happened to be in Iowa last week, too. What did you pick up about the political environment in Iowa? Democrats are sounding more hopeful than usual, but has it really gotten that bad for Republicans? Republicans are nervous in general, and about Iowa in particular. Democrats won three of the four House seats there as recently as 2018. And the Republicans are locked in an ugly primary for governor while Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, is doing everything he can to campaign as a moderate. It’s widely seen as the Democratic Party’s best chance to flip a governorship this fall. And the Senate seat is potentially in play too, right? Though I’d imagine that’s more of an uphill climb for Democrats? Yes, Democrats still have a primary there. But the surest sign it’s competitive is that Republicans have announced plans to spend $29 million defending the open seat of Senator Joni Ernst, who is retiring. That said, even the most optimistic Democrats consider Iowa a second-tier state in the effort to take the majority — behind Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska. Well, as a Kansan, I’m always happy to have more excuses for reporting trips to the Midwest. Shane, anything else you want to add about your travels to Iowa? Two orders of fried cheese curds are always a sign of a successful trip. Any butter cow sightings? Ever since I learned there was a metal-and-wood frame inside, I’ve been disillusioned about the butter cow.
QUOTE OF THE DAY “It’s very awkward.”That was Will O’Neill, the chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County in California, where two Republican House members are being pitted against each other in a newly redrawn district that combines their turf. The infighting has divided local Republicans, who are now asking themselves: Who do you side with when two of your friends are fighting? My colleague Kellen Browning has more. Got a tip?
It’s Platner vs. Collins in MaineSusan Collins and Graham Platner are fully turning their attention to each other. Senator Collins of Maine, a Republican seeking re-election, and Platner, an oysterman and political newcomer who became the presumptive Democratic nominee last week, released dueling ads yesterday in what amounted to a kickoff of the general election. My colleague Lisa Lerer breaks down the spots. TAKE OUR QUIZ This question comes from a recent article in The Times. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.) The Pentagon released “new, never-before-seen” files this morning that prompted President Trump to post on social media, “Whereas previous Administrations have failed to be transparent on this subject, with these new Documents and Videos, the people can decide for themselves, ‘WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?’” What were the files about? Taylor Robinson contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at |
