Junior Caminero hit a first-inning homer on Sunday at Fenway Park.
No big deal, you say. Dude hit 45 last season and already has 11 in 2026.
Why is a solo shot in the first inning of a May game against a last-place team notable?
I’m glad you asked.
Caminero’s performance through the first six weeks of the season has been somewhat overlooked. Everyone wants to talk about the amazing run the pitching staff is on, and the old-school way the offense is using bunts and ground balls to put pressure on opposing defenses.
And if you take just a cursory look at Caminero’s stats you might be under the impression that he’s struggling to match his breakout season from 2025. His batting average is down a little (.264 to .252) and so is his slugging percentage (.535 to .497). His on-base percentage is up (.311 to .339), but his defense has been inconsistent.
All in all, you might be under the impression that Caminero hasn’t played a huge role in Tampa Bay’s amazing 26-13 start.
Guess again.
While he hasn’t carried the Rays on his back or come up with as many big hits as Jonathan Aranda, Caminero is methodically working at becoming a more complete hitter and the effect should not be dismissed.
First of all, nearing the season’s quarter-mark, Caminero is hitting home runs at a near-identical pace to last season. In 2025, Caminero homered every 13.37 at-bats. So far in 2026, he is going deep every 13.36 at-bats. And while he’s had only one truly dramatic homer — leading off the ninth inning while trailing the White Sox 3-2 on April 16 — he’s not exactly hitting superfluous dingers.
When Caminero homers, the Rays are 9-1 this season (he hit two homers in one game). Even more impressive, five of his 11 home runs either tied the game or put the Rays in the lead. That’s exactly the kind of ratio you want from the biggest bat in the lineup.
But, beyond the power, Caminero is simply becoming a tougher out.
He’s not chasing as many pitches as last season, and his swing-and-miss rate has gone from 24.7% to 20.1%. His walk rate has nearly doubled, while he’s striking out less than the average major-leaguer.
The best illustration of his unique combination of skills:
Caminero began Sunday as one of 19 hitters with at least 10 homers on the season. Of those 19 hitters, only Yordan Alvarez has a lower whiff percentage than Caminero. That means he has the rare ability to hit the ball a long way while not necessarily swinging for the fences.
So, if he’s taking more pitches and making more contact, why have Caminero’s batting average and slugging percentage dipped?
It could be a couple of factors that go hand in hand. His percentage of hard-hit balls has dipped from 51.4% to 44%. That’s a fairly sizable drop-off, and it might explain why his batting average on balls in play (.243) is far below league average (.292).
But considering how his other numbers are trending in the right direction — and factoring in that Baseball Savant says he has the fastest bat in the game — I would suspect that Caminero’s hard-hit percentage will increase as the season progresses.
I would also wager that we have not yet seen Caminero locked-in for a two- or three-week stretch.
The Rays are playing outstanding baseball without leaning too heavily on their most ferocious hitter.
That might be the most encouraging sign yet.
