Between today and Tuesday, seven states will hold primaries (or not hold them. More on that below.) And there are some key themes we’re watching, from President Trump’s influence to redistricting and other key House races.
Here’s a state-by-state look:
Today
Louisiana: The biggest story to come out of tonight’s elections here is likely to be the fate of incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy. He’s facing the wrath of President Trump and MAHA. Cassidy has been a target of the president’s because he was one of seven senators to vote for Trump’s impeachment after the Jan. 6, 2021 siege on the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters. (Only two others remain in the Senate.) MAHA is upset with the liver doctor because of his pro-vaccine stance, his grilling of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s health secretary and the tanking of Casey Means, a Trump nominee to be surgeon general. Trump has endorsed a Cassidy challenger, Rep. Julia Letlow, but while that mostly cleared the field, state Treasurer John Fleming is still in. If they split enough votes, that could help Cassidy advance to a runoff, but he is a decided underdog to win that and survive.
Redistricting is also a major storyline in this state. Since the Supreme Court’s Callais decision significantly narrowed the Voting Rights Act, the state’s governor announced that House elections were suspended. The state is redrawing its congressional district boundaries to eliminate majority-Black districts. Those had been created to conform with what the VRA required prior to Callais. It has set off a snowball effect of other states across the South redrawing as well. It will likely significantly decrease Black representation in Congress, potentially eliminating as many as 15 Black-majority seats, and give Republicans a cushion in the midterm elections – despite a heavily negative national environment for Trump and the GOP.
Tuesday
Kentucky: Again, Trump’s strength with the GOP will be tested. There’s arguably been no greater antagonist from inside the GOP House during Trump’s second term than Rep. Thomas Massie. Trump endorsed Ed Gallrein, a former officer in the Navy SEALs, to try and unseat Massie. Massie has the support of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)
Alabama: Trump’s endorsement is at stake here, too, in the open Senate GOP primary to replace Tommy Tuberville. Trump has backed Rep. Barry Moore, but polls have shown a close race between him, the state’s attorney general and another Navy SEAL veteran.
Redistricting is a big storyline here, as well. Unlike in Louisiana, House voting will go on here, but primary voting has been delayed for four districts until later in the summer, so any votes cast in those races won’t count.
Idaho: Idaho highlights the trend of independent candidates, who were once Democrats, running for the Senate and trying to thread a needle between their former party and Trump.
Oregon: The night's primary will determine a GOP opponent for Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, who is up for reelection. Seven Republicans are running to challenge him. Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District is home to the state’s only Republican, and he’s facing challengers upset with GOP-led cuts to federal funding for several programs.
Pennsylvania: Multiple key House races will be set. The 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional Districts are all rated as Toss-Ups by the Cook Political Report. Not only will these races be key to whether Democrats pick up the House, but they will also offer a peek into how swing-district Republicans are talking about the economy.
Then the following week … it’s the closely watched GOP runoff in Texas that pits incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against conservative MAGA firebrand Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Democrats hope the controversial Paxton gets through to give them a longshot chance at picking up a Senate seat in red Texas, where Democrats haven’t won statewide office since 1994.
Trump in China: President Trump wrapped up a two-day visit to China this week, against the backdrop of ongoing trade tensions and an unsteady ceasefire in Iran. Senior political correspondent Tamara Keith and China correspondent Jennifer Pak report that while the trip was big on pageantry, it fell short on concrete agreements.
SCOTUS maintains mifepristone status quo: The abortion pill mifepristone will remain available via telehealth as a case challenging its FDA authorization moves through the lower courts, per a Supreme Court order issued Thursday. The order will keep the status quo in place for medication abortion access for now.
Majority of Americans doubt Trump’s assassination attempts, poll finds: A poll released this week by NewsGuard/YouGov surveyed 1,000 Americans about the three attempts on President Trump’s life in Butler, Pa., West Palm Beach, Fla., and at the White House Correspondents Association Dinner. When asked whether each of the incidents "was staged," a majority of respondents said yes or that they were unsure. A NewsGuard editor said the results are a signal of larger distrust in the government.
Nonprofit sues over reflecting pool reno: A nonprofit is suing the National Park Service, the Department of the Interior and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum over the decision to resurface the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Washington, D.C.'s National Mall and to paint the pool's basin “American flag blue.” The suit claims that the Trump administration failed to have the project reviewed according to federal law. The New York Times has reported that the final cost of the project could be upward of $13 million.
Trump is pardoning officials convicted of corruption: It’s just one way watchdogs say his administration is undermining the fight against corruption in government. Justice Correspondent Ryan Lucas reports.
Cracks in the MAHA-MAGA alliance: Activists and voters within the Make America Healthy Again coalition want to see fewer food additives and chemicals in the food supply. Those goals are coming into direct conflict with the Trump administration’s push for deregulation and other traditional Republican priorities — and it could have implications for November’s midterms.
Going Deeper: The Voters At The Center Of The Redistricting Wars
Annie Flanagan for The Washington Post via Getty Images
Much of the focus of the ongoing redistricting war has been on which political party will come out on top in the race to control Congress.
But it's voters who will pay a cost, in the form of discarded votes, diminished voting power and a democratic process that is increasingly complicated to navigate, say voting experts and voting rights advocates.
Congressional reporter Sam Gringlas spoke to voters in one majority-Black district that is set to be dismantled after last month’s Supreme Court decision — including men who participated in the struggle to pass the Voting Rights Act and spent decades fighting for representation.
Further reading:
Tennessee Republicans say the redistricting fight is about party. Democrats say they’re ignoring racial history.
Wine has sommeliers. Coffee has Q graders. Now, a chocolate scientist in Rome has developed a standardized way of preparing and evaluating cacao. Ari Daniel reports on what it could mean for the industry, cacao farmers and chocolate lovers writ large.
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