What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

The unnerving thing about Tuesday's relapse in U.S. tech stocks is that it happened even as oil prices fell sharply during the session, showing that stock market nervousness extends well beyond the energy story.

On that front, crude prices were volatile early on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran traded missile strikes overnight - the most alarming direct exchange between the sides two months into a very shaky ceasefire.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why the stock market is rising in importance for a growing number of employees and households.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had carried out missile and drone attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday in retaliation for American strikes on Iranian ‌targets around the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Elon Musk's SpaceX has drawn more than $250 billion of investor demand for what stands to be the largest-ever IPO, said people familiar with the matter on Tuesday, dwarfing the $75 billion the firm is seeking to raise.
  • Risking little of their own money, U.S. President Donald Trump and his sons have added at least $2.3 billion to the family fortune from their main crypto ventures, while the investors they've wooed have taken a $2.3 billion hit, a Reuters examination found.
  • Price remains the key driver of China's imports of major commodities. ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell considers what this may mean moving forward.
  • The U.S. Treasury is issuing more than half a trillion dollars of T-bills per week on average. ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever explains how this could become a problem.
 

The chips are blue

The SOX chip index fell back nearly 2% on Tuesday, although the midday selloff had been much deeper at over 8%. The equities mood darkened further on Wednesday, with Asian indexes slumping and U.S. futures in the red before the bell.

That comes ahead of the U.S. May CPI report, which will take centre stage on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to creep above 4% for the first time in three years, while core inflation is seen stalking 3%.

The report will not only set the tone for stocks but also comes ahead of a 10-year Treasury auction later in the day, with a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end now getting baked into futures markets.

The ECB is expected to deliver a hike as soon as tomorrow, while Japanese wholesale price inflation data on Wednesday cemented expectations that the Bank of Japan will follow suit next week. Chinese producer inflation data also showed price heat there last month.

One of the few strands of optimism over the past 24 hours was oil's sharp fall to a seven-week low on Tuesday. That came amid unverified U.S. claims that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz were rising, even as Washington and Tehran struggle to reach a deal.

But the renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities muddied the picture somewhat, with crude prices rising before unwinding those gains in volatile trading early on Wednesday. And despite oil's broader fall, there's still some unease over a potential supply crunch this month as U.S. oil inventories dwindle.

All that sets a noisy and bumpy backdrop to the marquee SpaceX IPO later in the week - an event that some suggest is contributing to market volatility as investors clear the decks elsewhere to take up the new offer.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

Stock-pay boom amplifies US economic drumbeat

The stock market may not be the real economy, but red-hot U.S. stock price gains offer more than a fuzzy feel-good factor for many households. The rise in stock-based worker compensation may help bind the two more closely.

One of the puzzles of recent years has been how a bumpy post-pandemic ride of spiking inflation and interest rates, along with political and trade uncertainty, failed to tip the wider U.S. economy into recession.