Good morning. We are now three days into an uncertain pause in the war between the United States and Iran. Before I get to that, though: I’ve heard from a lot of you about how frustrating it can be when you can’t read our links without a subscription to The Times. I’m happy to say that starting today we’ll provide several free stories in every newsletter. They’re in the Morning Reads section. No paywall. Just click.
In mediationIt’s a tenuous, fragile moment. We haven’t seen the preliminary peace agreement that’s meant to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Hostilities continue to simmer in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. A period of diplomacy may be coming, 60 days of negotiations to end the war. But what those negotiations will bring remains an open question. Three of my colleagues have examined some of the possibilities. Their perspectives, deeply informed by the beats that they cover, help illuminate some of the forces at play in this dangerous, unsettling dispute. The view from WashingtonPresident Trump’s in a bind, reports David Sanger, who covers the White House and national security. Trump called David over the weekend to talk about how much he loathed the deal his predecessor Barack Obama made with Iran in 2015, which curtailed sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on the regime’s nuclear activity. “It was a road to a nuclear weapon, and ours is a wall against a nuclear weapon in the truest sense of the word,” he told David. “So let’s start there.” But as the Trump administration heads into negotiations over Iran’s nuclear stockpile and future research and enrichment activities, the president knows he has to get more than Obama did. Because if he does not, why did he take the United States to war in the first place? And it’s a big undertaking. The 2015 deal with Iran took 18 months to negotiate. Experts on nuclear material, inspection and enforcement were involved. The agreement was more than 150 pages long, filled with technical details and benchmarks and schedules. Trump, as ever, presents as an optimist. “We have our deal done with Iran,” he said yesterday at the G7 summit in France. “It goes to a second stage, which I think will be actually easier.” The view from TehranIran’s feeling emboldened, reports Yeganeh Torbati, who covers the country. Iranian politicians, generals and clerics from across the nation’s political spectrum called the preliminary deal a victory for Tehran, Yeganeh reports, one that shows Iran’s “resilience against a far more powerful enemy.” One expert Yeganeh spoke with said that Iran was certain to be galvanized heading into continued talks about peace. “I cannot recall another instance in which Iran suffered such serious military setbacks yet emerged with what could be considered a diplomatic victory,” he said. That may spell trouble at the negotiating table, especially when it comes to the future of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. “The nuclear negotiations will be the real test of the durability of this arrangement,” the expert said. “If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have subsided by that stage, Trump may find it more difficult to extract major concessions from Tehran.” The economic view
No matter what happens, the war has permanently altered the world order, reports Patricia Cohen, who covers the global economy. For one thing, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has changed where nations buy their energy and what kinds of energy they’re buying. In some places, like South Korea and Japan, there’s been a turn toward coal, which pollutes the atmosphere. In others, Patti says, it’s likely to propel a turn toward renewable sources like nuclear, wind and solar. China’s a big beneficiary of that because it’s so far ahead of the rest of the world in developing those energy technologies. That’s the second big change: Beijing is even more important on the world stage. “China looks to be an out-and-out winner,” concluded analysts from a global energy consulting firm. Third, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz may never truly return, Patti reports. Iran wants to impose a fee on ships that sail through the narrow waterway, which could violate international agreements. But even if it doesn’t, Tehran has demonstrated that it can disrupt trade there any time it wants to. Shipping companies don’t like the uncertainty. Finally, the World Bank says that growth of the global economy is slowing. Separately, inflation is starting to roar. That could result in a jittery world economy. I’ll let Patti have the last word on that: “And that is not good for long-term planning, investment or growth.” More on the war
G7 summit
It was a mixed primary night for Georgia Republicans backed by Trump. Representative Mike Collins, his pick for Senate, won. (Collins will face the Democratic incumbent, Jon Ossoff, in November.) But Trump’s pick for governor — Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, a longtime ally — lost to Rick Jackson. More results from last night:
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