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If nothing else, we’ve at least stumbled our way into understanding the Trump Doctrine. It combines amorality and incompetence to empower enemies and betray allies, as it dilutes American power in a Dunning-Kruger stew of bluster, arrogance, and stupidity. This doctrine, and the war that came to represent it so clearly, is hardly a surprise. As Daniel B. Shapiro asks in The Atlantic (Gift Article), What Did You Expect? “The credibility of the U.S. in tatters and its military readiness compromised. Alliances and partnerships under stress. The global economy in tumult, inflicting financial pain on American citizens that will linger even as oil prices decline. A fine and avoidable mess all around.” Maybe you’re feeling a little schadenfreude watching this humiliation. But this is not just political theater. As Americans, the humiliation is ours as well. And its impact is bad. Bad for America, our alliances, the region, the Iranian people, Israelis, and the world order.
+ At one point yesterday, after describing the Iranian regime as “nice to deal with,” Trump explained to reporters why it makes sense to leave Iran with its ballistic missile program: “I’m saying that if other countries have them, it’s a little unfair for them not to have some.” Today, JD Vance concurred. Defending Trump’s remark, Vance says Iran needs missiles for ‘self-defense,’ like Israel. Empower enemies and betray allies. Vance, who famously said he didn’t care what happens to our ally, Ukraine, added: “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.” (I’m no fan of Bibi or his cabinet, but Trump was locking arms with them as recently as a couple weeks ago. But I’ll give this to Vance: He is an expert on reducing the number of one’s powerful allies.)
+ NYT (Gift Article): Israel, Stunned by Trump’s Iran Deal, Sees It as a ‘Catastrophic Capitulation.’ And from Yair Rosenberg in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Netanyahu Finally Learns the Truth About Trump. “For years, Netanyahu has built his brand on two promises to the Israeli electorate: that he alone could withstand international pressure to compromise on Israeli security, and that he alone could handle Trump.” (If there’s any silver lining to this whole mess, it’s that it may finally doom Bibi’s election winning streak.)
+ While Vance was railing against our ally in the Middle East, Pete Hegseth was covering the Europe beat, lashing out at NATOfor failing to be supportive enough of America’s historic blunder in Iran. (Easy on enemies, tough on allies.)
+ Some housekeeping. First, NextDraft will be off until Tuesday. Second, there’s still one more day to score a NextDraft shirt for just $13. (Use the code LUCKY13 at checkout.)
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Sticks and Drones
Ukraine knows all too well the American administration’s doctrine of going soft on enemies while holding back support for allies. Trump essentially pushed for a surrender in that war, too. Luckily, Ukrainians (and their European allies, who understand that Putin is also not “nice” to deal with) aren’t going along with that program. Ukraine Bombards Moscow With One of the Biggest Drone Attacks of the War. “No deaths were immediately reported. But the large-scale assault seemed likely to feed fears among Russians that the Kremlin’s ability to isolate society from the impacts of the war was sharply eroding.”
+ Inspired by Ukraine, and worried by China: Taiwan teaches its citizens how to fly drones.
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Hacky Track
“With some small, high-stakes exceptions—such as software used on the International Space Station or nuclear submarines—code is written and deployed without much rigorous testing. If a bug is reported, it gets patched ... Such a relaxed security posture has been more or less fine because discovering vulnerabilities is hard and skilled hackers are few in number: Either nobody found the bugs or nobody was able to exploit them. But traditional cybersecurity methods don’t cut it anymore.” AI might feel like it gives you some superpowers. But it also gives them to the bad guys. Matteo Wong: Assume You Will Be Hacked.
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The Tenacity of Hope
Meanwhile, back in decent America, the Obama Presidential Center opened today in Chicago. It turns out some presidents don’t have any trouble attracting A-list talent (Bono, Bruce, The Roots, Stevie Wonder, Jennifer Hudson, Eddie Vedder, etc) or former presidents to celebrate unity and what makes America actually great. Here are live updates from NBC, and the stream from YouTube. It takes a little more audacity to have hope these days. This might help.
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Extra, Extra
High Court: “The U.S. Supreme Court found Thursday that the government’s prosecution of a marijuana user from Texas for owning guns was inconsistent with the Second Amendment. The decision was unanimous.” Supreme Court sides with a marijuana user who was barred from owning guns. (On the plus side, his aim probably isn’t all that good...)
+ How The Doge Bites: “Their mother died in January, their father in February. Now these brothers are in the process of figuring out the basics of living alone ... Both parents were HIV positive but had been able to survive because of the daily medications they took to prevent the virus from progressing. When the U.S. overhauled foreign aid at the start of President Trump’s second term, there were major cuts to global health — and disruptions to the U.S.’s flagship efforts to combat HIV/AIDS globally called PEPFAR or the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.” NPR: These 3 brothers lost their parents to AIDS. Now they struggle to make it on their own.
+ What’s Up, Grok? “This enthusiasm feels unprecedented. Health care is typically among the last fields to adopt a new technology; I still use a pager, and I send faxes on a regular basis. (Younger readers can ask Claude to explain what these things are.) A tendency toward simple tech is in part a product of doctors’ safety-focused culture: We know that any ill-timed glitch has the potential to turn deadly. But these days, clinicians are allowed—encouraged, even—to run wild with the latest software.” AI Is Taking Over Hospitals. (It’s only a matter of time before AI says there are no appointments available for a few months...)
+ See If I Care: “Some had parents who never said ‘I love you’; who never tried very hard; who never took an interest. Others had parents who hurt them. Many were harmed in the usual, derivative ways — with belts and closed fists and neglect and humiliation — but some had parents who were more inventive in their infliction of pain. A woman whose father would swing her sister around by her ponytail. A man whose drunken mother used to wake him up at night to tell him that he was a ‘piece of shit’ for hours on end, so he couldn’t sleep.” NYT Magazine (Gift Article): The Pain of Caring for a Parent Who Abused You.
+ On Parade: Here are some highlights from