When you woke up this morning, the Rays were the No. 1 wild-card team in the American League.
Considering the disappointment of the past two years and an underwhelming offseason, a 43-31 record on June 22 should feel like a godsend.
And yet, optimism seems like a struggle right now.
For nearly a month, the Rays have been the worst team in the AL. After a blistering 34-15 start, Tampa Bay has gone 9-16 since May 24. It took nearly 50 games to build a 5 ½-game lead in the East, and it was wiped out in less than half that time.
Clearly, the Rays were not as good as that 34-15 record indicated, but are they as bad as the past four weeks have felt?
It’s a legitimate question, and the answer does not look promising.
Maybe this is just recency bias talking. Maybe we’re wary after Tampa Bay had a similar midseason swoon in 2025. Maybe three weeks from now, the Rays will have righted the ship and put a little more distance between themselves and the other wild-card contenders.
And maybe I’m just being overly critical. So help me out here.
Let’s look at best- and worst-case scenarios and decide which makes more sense in the season’s second half.
Starting rotation
There was a time when the Rays rotation was as good as any other in the game. Free agents Nick Martinez and Steven Matz looked like they had found the fountain of youth, Shane McClanahan was pitching better than anyone could have expected after a two-year absence and Drew Rasmussen was having another All-Star-type season.
Since then, Matz has been moved to the bullpen, Martinez’s ERA has gone from 1.62 to 2.73 in the span of four starts and the Rays have lost four of McClanahan’s last five starts.
Best-case scenario: Griffin Jax continues to improve in Matz’s spot in the rotation, Martinez continues to give the Rays six solid innings on most nights and McClanahan finds a needed second wind. Also, the Rays pick up another starter before the trade deadline.
Worst-case scenario: McClanahan wears down in the second half and needs a breather on the injured list. Martinez has a similar second-half meltdown as he did in Cincinnati last season, when he had a 5.62 ERA in July/August and temporarily lost his spot in the rotation.
Offense
Best-case scenario: Yandy Diaz challenges for another batting title, Jonathan Aranda drives in 100 runs and Junior Caminero rediscovers his power. The odds are pretty decent for all three of those possibilities. Also, Jonny DeLuca adds a new dimension to the offense, while Gavin Lux and Jacob Melton both arrive to add a spark.
Worst-case scenario: Cedric Mullins remains below the Mendoza line, Chandler Simpson continues to struggle against left-handed pitching and 4-3 losses seem to be on the agenda every other night.
Bullpen
Best-case scenario: Not even sure I can come up with a best-case scenario for this group. Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly are having career years, which is encouraging but also a little scary. Cam Booser has been fantastic, but the sample size is incredibly small. A trade could help, but the rotation and offense may be bigger priorities.
Worst-case scenario: As the rotation wears down, the bullpen will be asked to do more. And considering the lack of confidence in most of their high-leverage relievers, that could turn into a disaster.
Competition
Best-case scenario: The American League continues to stink. As bad as the Rays have been the past month, they still have a comfortable lead in the wild-card race. Even if they go .500 the rest of the way, the Rays will have 87 wins. That should give them a decent shot at a playoff spot.
Worst-case scenario: The Tigers, Blue Jays and Rangers are better on paper than what we’ve seen the first three months. That’s a little scary. If Tampa Bay cannot maintain a .500 record beginning tonight, the postseason odds begin to look dicey.
