Whether the Iran Deal Holds or Fails, It's Already Too Late for the Global Economy

Here’s the good news... If the U.S./Iran memorandum of understanding holds and negotiations go well, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

The bad news?

It’s already too late.

Certainly a reopening of the Strait today is better than a reopening tomorrow or three months down the road.

But in terms of what the global economy needs, the world passed the point of no return quite some time ago.

The mainstream media won’t tell you that, but in the coming weeks, the truth will become more and more clear – we’re going to run short of crude oil and its byproducts.

President Trump Warns of Economic Catastrophe

On June 6^th, I put out the following video as an ALERT to subscribers: “They’re Draining the Last Oil Reserves and Nobody Is Telling You!“ That timeline showed the U.S., and effectively the world, running out of crude oil reserves by early July.

Many people dismissed that alert as hyperbole.

But President Trump himself just admitted it – the world is about to run out of crude oil reserves. And as I’ve warned for more than three months, the result will be a global depression. President Trump affirmed that as well.

Just read the following excerpts from a press conference President Trump held at the G7 Summit in France on June 17, 2026. You can find a full transcript here. Everything below is a direct quote from President Trump (I put key phrases in bold to show emphasis):

So, the one thing I didn’t want to see is I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could have happened.

And you know, I’ve studied presidents, some good, some bad, some great. Not too many are great and some really bad. We had one just recently. And the one president I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover. I didn’t want that and who knows what would have happened.

So, rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover – that was always the one I didn’t want to be. I wouldn’t have preferred Nixon; I wouldn’t have preferred – there were plenty I wouldn’t prefer.

But the one I always thought of, Herbert Hoover, and he caused it. He raised taxes too fast and he raised interest rates too fast all at the same time and it caused the Great Depression. So, I don’t think I’ll make mistakes like that.

But what this does is it allows the ships to go. If we keep bombing, those ships won’t be going and you’re talking about $500 million, $600 million, $700 million a day. It’s a lot of money, a lot of money. That’s why the world is OK, it’s liquid, it’s fine. Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks.

There are reserves all over the world and we would really run out and there would be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it, and you want to see bedlam.

Here’s the video of Trump admitting we run out of crude oil reserves in four weeks 👇

The four excerpts above give us great insight into what the world faces. By Trump’s own admission, continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will result in a global depression – an economic downturn on par with the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Trump knew he would be blamed for the global depression, and understandably, he didn’t want to become this generation’s Herbert Hoover.

Unfortunately, any deal with Iran – whether it holds or not – is too late to avoid that outcome.

We’re going to hit “tank bottoms” when it comes to global crude oil reserves, and that means the global economy and global financial markets are about to be crushed.

Why It’s Too Late…

When it comes to the global economy, we passed the point of no return long ago. Now, we’re in an even worse position.

Back in April, in “3 Reasons a Middle East Energy Shock is Unavoidable,” I pointed out three reasons why:

1) Damaged Oil and Gas Facilities

Persian Gulf energy flows can’t and won’t return to “normal” overnight because Iranian missiles and drones caused significant damage to facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Agreement on a memorandum of understanding won’t immediately fix those facilities.

2) Shut-In Oil Production

Persian Gulf countries shut down millions of barrels per day of crude oil production due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Those oil wells won’t return to pre-war production overnight (if ever). Depending on the oil well in question, it can take weeks or months to bring production back online, and that assumes the reservoir wasn’t damaged during the shutdown process.

3) Time and Logistics

Just as it takes time to clear highway traffic once an obstruction is remo