What matters in U.S. and global markets today
 

Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

An 8% plunge in the high-flying U.S. chip stock index on Tuesday marked a jarring injection of volatility into mid-year trading. Memory chipmaker Micron Technology fell around 13%, reversing all its gains from the day before, ahead of its earnings update today.

For an index that had doubled so far this year, maybe it just ran out of steam, but the 10% retreat in South Korea's chip-heavy and volatile KOSPI earlier in the day won't have helped either.

Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son thinks it's "blasphemy" to think of AI as a bubble, though after this week's latest wobble, others may not be as confident.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why a Greenspan-style approach to asset bubbles could be cause for concern under Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into "infinity", while Tehran said it had made no such concession in negotiations, raising questions about the viability of their fragile peace deal.
  • South Korea's ‌SK Hynix said on Wednesday it plans to raise 45.45 trillion won ($29.43 billion) via the listing of American Depositary receipts (ADRs), as it seeks to expand its investor base and production capacity for chips used in AI.
  • Japan's government plans to examine ways to improve management of its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves, a ‌war chest for future yen intervention, according to a draft growth strategy report reviewed by Reuters on Wednesday.
  • The UK's fresh political turmoil offers the next prime minister a chance to rethink the country's North Sea strategy and strengthen energy security, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
  • As the Fed shifts to "less‑is‑more" communication under Kevin Warsh - an approach the late Alan Greenspan would have endorsed - ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever considers the possible impacts on market participants.
 

Bubble or blasphemy?

The KOSPI, other Asia bourses and U.S. futures stabilised a bit overnight after Tuesday's tech selloff, which saw the Nasdaq shed more than 2%. But the episode will prompt another bout of questions around stretched tech valuations.

Micron's earnings will be the sector's next test as investors look to learn more about the AI-driven memory chip demand that's propelled the company's stock up more than 200% this year.

SpaceX's damp squib over the past week since its IPO was another sideshow, with the rocket maker falling precipitously from its post-IPO peak. But its shares found a level above the listing price on Tuesday.

One factor gnawing at tech is pumped-up Fed rate-rise expectations since last week's policy meeting - and the wild divergence in forecasts on what might happen from here. Bank of America expects three hikes through next January, for example, while Citi still expects three cuts.

U.S. business surveys for June were above forecast, meantime, while oil prices continued to ebb toward four-month lows on U.S.-Iran talks and increased shipping activity in the Gulf, with Brent crude dipping below $76 per barrel.

In currency markets, the dollar extended recent gains on rate-hike bets, with the dollar index reaching a 13-month high and attention staying fixed on possible Bank of Japan intervention to prevent the greenback from hitting 40-year highs against the yen.

An intriguing story about how Japan's government is looking for better ways to manage its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves is also grabbing attention.

In single stock moves, FedEx stock fell 6% out of hours on worries about tighter margins in its latest earnings update on Tuesday. And private credit jitters continue to rumble as Morgan Stanley joined Apollo this week with the latest report of heavy redemptions from its flagship funds.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

Fed's bubble blind spot is cause for anxiety

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to differ much from the late Alan Greenspan on how the central bank should deal with financial asset bubbles - and that legacy offers little comfort to anyone.

During his almost two decades leading the Fed, Greenspan - who