FIA SmartBrief
Plus, Options traders challenge Fed hike bets
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June 24, 2026
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Top Stories
 
Cboe enters prediction-style trading
Cboe launched binary options tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index, marking its first prediction-style product as demand grows for short-dated, outcome-based trading. The contracts are available through Interactive Brokers and will roll out to Charles Schwab, extending Cboe's push beyond zero-day options into yes-or-no market exposure.
Full Story: CNBC (6/24), FX News Group (6/24)
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Drive to cut market complexity gathers pace across Europe
Regulators are targeting complex and fragmented rulebooks as they look to boost competitiveness and speed up market activity. But they warn that cutting duplication and simplifying rules must not come at the expense of resilience, with financial stability remaining the foundation.
Full Story: MarketVoice (6/23)
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Industry Developments
 
Options traders challenge Fed hike bets
SOFR options traders are building positions that challenge aggressive Fed hike pricing after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish pivot pushed markets toward higher-rate expectations. The flows suggest some investors see the timing of rate hikes as overdone and are hedging for a bond-market rally that could pull 10-year Treasury yields back toward 4.4%.
Full Story: Bloomberg (6/23)
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Meta to test prediction markets app with points system
Meta is experimenting with Arena, a prediction markets app that uses a points system instead of real money, The New York Times reports. Arena would leverage Facebook and Instagram users, and Meta has not ruled out the possibility of eventually using real money. The news prompted a more than 2% decline in DraftKings shares and a brief drop in Flutter Entertainment shares.
Full Story: The New York Times (6/23), Futures & Options World (6/24)
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AI reshapes quant career paths
Senior quants expect agentic AI to change hiring and workflow priorities, making coding skills less scarce while putting more emphasis on research judgment and problem formulation. A Risk.net straw poll found the tools could boost productivity but may also reduce demand for some junior or implementation-heavy roles as firms rethink how quant teams are structured.
Full Story: Risk (subscription required) (6/24)
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AI helps smaller hedge funds scale
New hedge funds are using AI tools to compete with larger macro and bond managers by automating research tasks once handled by teams of analysts. Managers said AI can parse central bank speeches, filings, inflation data and market signals at lower cost, changing the economics of launching boutique firms even as larger platforms retain advantages in capital and distribution.
Full Story: Bloomberg (6/24)
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US G-Sibs' nonbank assets top $7T
Nonbank assets at US global systemically important banks surpassed $7 trillion for the first time in the first quarter after a record $625 billion quarterly increase. Morgan Stanley led the jump, while all eight US G-Sibs reported higher exposures, underscoring the growing role of bank links to nonbank financial institutions.
Full Story: Risk (subscription required) (6/24)
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Barclays equity derivatives desk sees exits
eFinancialCareers (6/23)
 
 
SGX expands DLC offering with gold, silver instruments
Futures & Options World (6/23)
 
 
China zinc glut opens export watch
Bloomberg (6/24)
 
 
High-frequency traders expand in FX options market
Bloomberg (6/23)
 
 
 
 
Regulation & Enforcement
 
CFTC sues Kentucky over event contracts
The CFTC sued Kentucky after the state accused Kalshi and Polymarket of operating illegal gambling platforms, escalating a federal-state fight over prediction market oversight. The agency said event contracts fall under its exclusive jurisdiction as swaps, while Kentucky argues sports-linked markets should be regulated under state gambling laws.
Full Story: CNBC (6/23), MLex (6/23)
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US housing bill may boost fintech, crypto
A custodial deposit provision in a bipartisan housing bill could make bank-fintech and crypto partnerships cheaper by excluding some deposits from brokered-deposit rules. Supporters say the change gives community banks more funding flexibility, but critics warn it creates a regulatory advantage for tech-linked arrangements that may carry risks not captured by bank balance sheets.
Full Story: American Banker (6/23), The Block (6/23)
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ESMA urges unauthorized crypto firms to wind down by July 1
The European Securities and Markets Authority has called on unauthorized crypto-asset service providers to wind down operations by July 1, as the transitional period for the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation ends. ESMA has instructed unauthorized providers to stop onboarding new clients, limit services to asset transfers and communicate clearly with clients about the wind-down process.
Full Story: Finadium (6/23)
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UK launches consolidated tape, unifying bond trading data
Hedgeweek (London) (6/23)
 
 
CFTC's Selig: Perpetual contracts unsuitable for agriculture
Futures & Options World (6/24)
 
 
 
 
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