Morning. In focus this week, we’re marking a major turning point in Canada-U.S. trade, reviewing the review of the deal, and searching for signs of economic resilience on both sides of the border.

Venezuela: Frustration is growing over the interim administration’s rescue response as the official death toll from devastating earthquakes climbs to 1,450. Families reported at least 68,900 people missing as of Saturday.

Office space: The federal government is moving ahead with its July 6 deadline for public servants to return to the office at least four days a week. But some departments have announced longer timelines because of a lack of available space.

Soft power: The producer of Heated Rivalry is holding off on sending Mark Carney his own Hollander fleece until the Online Streaming Act’s future is clarified.

1. Birthday bumps: As Canadians celebrate July 1 with fireworks, Ottawa is bracing for a different kind of flare-up.

Wednesday marks the six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – the deal that replaced NAFTA during Donald Trump’s first presidency and kept alive decades of free trade across North America.

Canada and Mexico badly want to keep it intact. For Canada, the U.S. accounted for 71.7 per cent of exports last year, down from 75.9 per cent in 2024, but still by far the country’s largest market.

The Trump administration is expected to let the deadline come and go, moving the three countries into annual reviews that could continue until 2036. The USMCA – known in these parts as CUSMA – isn’t going anywhere for now, but Washington will have regular opportunities to reopen negotiations. Any country can also withdraw with six months’ notice.

Ever in search of a silver lining in this space, we suppose you might say July 1 is the day uncertainty becomes institutionalized – and there’s a kind of certainty in that.

Thankfully, we have more than our hopes to count on. Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of America’s largest bank and never one to shy away from sharing his thoughts, likely has a better view into the White House’s plans, such as they are, than most. Dimon met recently with Donald Trump and Mark Carney before telling The Globe that he expects the current dispute to be “a bump in the road.” The U.S. administration wants to reach a deal, Dimon said. He predicted there “will not be a divorce” between the two economies.

Did we have a prenup? Someone should at least check.

2. Running on empty; bottled up rage: Tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos are weighing heavily on Canadian manufacturers as the USMCA review begins. The duties are costing automakers billions of dollars, Eric Atkins reports, while the fate of idled assembly plants in Ingersoll and Brampton depends on greater certainty around North American trade and relief from U.S. Section 232 auto tariffs.

Trump has also applied 25-per-cent tariffs on the non-U.S. content of vehicles made in Canada, forcing manufacturers here to halt investments and rethink supply chains.

In the review phase, Trump’s negotiating team will likely press harder on one of the President’s biggest grievances: the country’s decades-old practice of restricting dairy import licences. Washington is aggressively targeting these limits, which effectively block American milk products from reaching Canadian retail shelves.

The President has vilified Canada as a “tariff abuser” over the policy, and argues that Ottawa’s restrictive licensing locks out American farmers and flouts the spirit of free trade.

3. Status report: All of these tensions come into sharper focus tomorrow, when Statistics Canada releases April gross domestic product. The economy is expected to grow 0.4 per cent from March, matching the agency’s preliminary estimate and breaking a flat stretch that lasted two quarters, economists at RBC wrote on Friday. A teeny tiny move, but at least it’s the right direction.

And it should pour cold water on the flare-up that erupted when Canada hit the “technical recession” milestone in the last report.

Mining and oil are expected to drive most of the increase, the RBC economists wrote, while services like retail, wholesale trade and real estate post more modest gains.

4. Before the bell: The earnings calendar is ringing quietly these days. Defence contractor AeroVironment reports today, Nike tomorrow and Constellation Brands on Wednesday.

General Mills, which also reports on Canada Day, is among the packaged food companies whose shares have been dragged down by changing consumer preferences and higher costs, Amber Kanwar writes in her weekly market setup.

5. Around the world: Job, jobs, jobs: A wave of U.S. employment data this week – including job openings and a highly anticipated June jobs report – will feed market bets on whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year.

The economy has been pumping out solid job gains, and another positive report could be the tipping point for newly minted Fed chair Kevin Warsh – threatening to derail a nearly four-year-long bull market that has seen the S&P 500 surge about 106 per cent from its 2022 lows.

Traders are pricing in a rate hike as ​early as September.