Artificial intelligence may not yet have transformed the economy, but it has already transformed financial markets. The top seven AI firms now account for roughly a third of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 index. By its end, 2026 could have produced three of the largest IPOs in history from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. The AI industry is hoovering up capital and issuing increasing amounts of debt. That may be affecting long-term bond yields; the boom has certainly led to a debate at the Federal Reserve about the implications of AI for interest rates.

To be justified, these financial signals must ultimately lead to economic transformation. But how much? Some of Silicon Valley’s AI evangelists expect imminent, mass job loss, followed by explosive economic growth. Economists who study AI—even those who are bullish about the potential of the technology—are much more conservative, arguing instead that growth will run into bottlenecks.

In either case it is fiendishly difficult to discern who will profit the most. The railway boom of the late 19th century and the dotcom boom of the late 20th century were both built on useful technologies that also cost many investors their shirts. In the case of AI, will it be the model-makers, the infrastructure-providers or the companies deploying AI that enjoy the biggest gains? How far off are the profits on which investors are betting? And could higher interest rates puncture the euphoria?

On tomorrow’s episode of Inside Economics we will ask whether the AI boom will end in vindication or despair. I’ll be joined in the studio by Josh Roberts, our capital markets correspondent. Mike Bird, our Wall Street editor, will join down the line from New York.

We’ll also be responding to your comments and questions. Please take part in our poll about productivity growth and send in any questions you want us to answer via the Q&A feature on the episode page. The show will be available to watch from 6pm London time (1pm in New York) on Tuesday and you can send your feedback to insider@economist.com. See you then.