What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

It's halftime for 2026 markets as the whistle blows on a turbulent and volatile first six months of the year.

Despite the energy-shocking four-month Iran war and rancorous geopolitics over Venezuela, Greenland and NATO, it's been a boom year for key parts of the AI story, with chip stocks more than doubling.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on the lingering risks around the AI boom - even as bubble fears wane.

And catch the latest episode of the Morning Bid podcast - a mid-year special edition featuring Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week - and subscribe to Jamie's markets newsletter, Trading Day.

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • Iranian and U.S. negotiating teams were due in Doha this week, but Iran said on Monday no meeting had been scheduled as weekend missile fire from both sides tested the interim ceasefire ‌to end the four-month-old war.
  • Stocks of crude oil in the U.S. ‌Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983, according to data from the ⁠Department of Energy.
  • The yen slumped to levels not seen since 1986 on Tuesday, stoking worries that direct intervention from Tokyo was around the corner.
  • The world's oil tanker fleet is behaving as if the Strait of Hormuz is back to business as usual, leaving a wide gap between expectation and reality, writes ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire.
  • Asia's crude oil imports rose slightly in June but stayed near their lowest level in more than a decade - and risks remain, writes ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell.
 

Doubled by halftime

Many individual chip stocks trebled or quadrupled this year on pumped-up AI capex by the so-called hyperscalers. The second quarter was the best on record for the U.S. SOX chip index, but June was the worst month in a dour year so far for the Magnificent Seven - most of whom are doing all the spending.

Oil prices have returned to pre-Iran war levels, meantime, with all eyes on planned peace talks in Doha on Tuesday after the weekend's military flareups.

But Federal Reserve rate-hike bets are still in the mix for the second half regardless, as recent macro releases show the U.S. economy may be running hot.

More immediately, the quarter ended on an upbeat note for the big chip-stock winners in Asia, with Wall Street's attention now turning to the June jobs report due on Thursday in this holiday-shortened week.

Ahead of that, U.S. May job openings data is on the schedule for Tuesday, as are consumer confidence updates for June.

Another big development on Monday was the narrow U.S. Supreme Court ruling that President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook until the case against her is heard and proven. If she's found guilty, it's a different matter.

Over in FX markets, Japan's yen continued to weaken to 40-year lows, without intervention from the authorities so far, despite ongoing warnings. Speculative short positions in the yen have risen to their highest in about two years, with investors increasingly nervous about the prospect of official action to prop up the flagging currency.

In corporate news, Comcast ended almost 5% higher on Monday after it announced it was splitting its media and entertainment units from its communications business, spinning out NBCUniversal and Sky into a different company.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

BIS dares to blaspheme as AI bubble fears wane

Although some deem it blasphemous to suggest the AI boom is another bubble, the world's central banking forum and watchdog has warned against getting swept up in the frenzy, just as investors appear increasingly reluctant to second-guess it.

In its latest annual report on the state of world finance, the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements on Sunday didn't doubt the scale of the AI buildout - but it did fret about the hangover when the spending crests.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.