What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

The new month, quarter and second half kicked off in a cautious mood, with U.S. Treasury yields jumping overnight as the June jobs report looms, and investors are already looking ahead to the second-quarter earnings season.

While there was no precise trigger for the jump in Treasury yields, it followed news of another surprise rise in U.S. job openings for May and comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal later today.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out the first edition of a new mid-week series where I unpack some of the less obvious themes in finance and markets. First up - is a young population still the economic boon it once was?

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast on what investors will be zeroing in on as the new quarter begins. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • The global AI boom powered Asia's manufacturing sector in June, with brisk demand for technology-related goods ‌offsetting the drag from the Iran war, business surveys showed on Wednesday.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump reported more than $1.4 billion in income from his family’s crypto ventures last year, showing how Trump now derives most of his income from digital assets that have benefited from his policies, according to a review of his latest financial disclosures.
  • Iran said on Tuesday it would not meet with top U.S. envoys who flew to the region following an outbreak of hostilities, clouding the prospects for a lasting peace between the two countries.
  • A potential Russian diesel export ban couldn’t come at a worse time, with global fuel inventories already dangerously low after the biggest energy shock in decades, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
  • Trump's tariffs had more bark than bite, but their full economic impact may not become clear for years, argues ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
 

Kicking off H2

The U.S. labor market may be picking up steam. The so-called JOLTS report for April had shown available jobs surging, but many economists argued that the report was likely an outlier and would be revised down. But May's report saw openings rise yet again to reach a two-year high.

ADP's private-sector jobs numbers are due out today, while the June national payrolls report will come out a day early on Thursday owing to Friday's Independence Day holiday.

Meanwhile, hopes that top-level talks between U.S. and Iranian officials would get underway on Tuesday were disappointed as the Iranian side failed to show up over disputes about details of the framework agreement.

In FX markets, Japan's yen sliced through 162 per dollar on Tuesday to new 40-year lows, but there's been no sign of intervention to halt it so far.

Staying in Asia, South Korea's overall exports surged over 70% last month, their fastest pace in nearly 50 years, fuelled by a blistering 200% increase in chip exports. This makes the country only the fourth in the world to eclipse $100 billion in monthly exports.

Back on Wall Street, attention is already drifting to the upcoming second-quarter earnings season. That's understandable given how transformative the last one was for the AI spending theme and the chip sector.

Aggregate annual profit growth is expected to be about 22%, but 60% of that is in the chip and tech equipment sector, and just two firms account for 40% of it: Nvidia and Micron.

 
 

Youth, task forces and AI debt - notes from the week

In a week of reflection on both a mad first half of 2026 and the 250th anniversary of the U.S., the political and economic news flow has remained relentless, even if it has lately been drowned out by an AI investment frenzy that has shifted this year from the big spenders to the chipmakers supplying the key components.

Today's column takes a different format: a weekly dip into a few other issues - some related and some not - that caught our eye over the past week and didn't necessarily make the front pages.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

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